Bitcoin Daily Price Forecast (9/4/20) - Blood In The Water or BTFD?

By Crypto Daily FX | Crypto Daily FX | 3 Sep 2020


Bitcoin broke down on Thursday, breaking through support at the $11,000 level and reaching down towards $10,500 before turning around and eventually settling for the day around $10,750. We're now monitoring further support levels to see how deep this correction will go. 

(September 3, 2020 8:00 PM EST)

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Bitcoin dropped hard again Thursday as it gave back nearly $1,000 to about the $11,750 level. This move appears to be a response or correlation to the multiple percentage point drop in equities today, as the Dow Jones went -2.7%, S&P 500 -3.50%, and the Nasdaq over -5%. Gold also saw continued selling pressure following yesterday's >2% drop, although at this point I think the overall equities markets sentiment was enough to spook some investors or funds who also had Bitcoin exposure. Remember, as more funds, offices, and investors get involved with Bitcoin, you'll see some correlative moves when markets reverse course to risk-off and risk-on. It's very likely that the selling in Bitcoin today was smaller funds and offices selling some Bitcoin into rampant market selling to take profits off the table. This may continue into next week, as margin calls go into effect in 48 hours, which, after the long weekend, would make Tuesday, September 8th a potentially bloody day.

We're now closely watching support levels to see if this move is shallow or possibly deeper retracements. Look for support around the 50 Day EMA around $10,700, or roughly today's daily close. Next support would be at $10,000, which is a huge psychological level, and the 200 Day EMA around ~$9,343. 

I don't see much selling pressure going forward, but even so, I think Bitcoin's downside is limited and should be treated as a BTFD scenario until the trend changes. That being said, there's no way I'm shorting Bitcoin, only continuing to accumulate. It is very obvious that the equity markets are extremely overstretched and by no measure should be valued anywhere close to sky high levels they are every day, but that is the reality we are in now. 

Setting fractional buy orders at $500 increments is a good way to DCA over time, gaining exposure at different price levels and maybe even lowering your averages if Bitcoin spikes down and fills your order.

 

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