Bitcoin fell on Tuesday, reaching down towards the $12,000 level, before eventually turning around and settling around $12,300 USD. This should come as no surprise, as Bitcoin has had an exceptional July-August, rallying ~37% in the last 30 days. Big moves like these aren't uncommon in crypto, but as this market matures, breakouts like this will need some time to digest some of the gains if it wants to sustain a healthy bull market.
(Aug 18, 2020 8:00 PM EST)
As Bitcoin continues to make higher highs, previous resistance areas should become new support levels. If BTC can hold onto the $12,000 level, which it has for two consecutive days now since breaking out, it should set the stage for a run up to $14,000 and then $20,000.
Look for support at large round numbers: $12,000, $11,000, and of course the $10,000 level underneath should offer significant support with the rising 50 Day EMA and $10,000 being a large, round psychological number to market speculators. Remember, we are human, after all (or at least most of us). Longer-term support should be around the 200 Day EMA around $8,900-$9,000, which also happens to be roughly the 50 Week EMA. I don't see a high likelihood of BTC retracing to $9,000 or under, but as long as the Bitcoin network is up and not being universally banned by every first world government, consider that price discount a gift, as it will probably not last long.
Ultimately, this market is going higher and remains on a buy-the-dip scenario until the trend changes, which I don't foresee happening for at least a couple years. Quantitative Easing and infinitely inflating the fiat market with more paper money does not have an instantaneous effect; although, it has not taken long to start to have an impact on Bitcoin. One thing is for certain: 2020 is the ideal macro economic environment for Bitcoin and Crypto as a whole to mature and showcase its value in a fundamentally flawed fiat-based financial system. In fact, it is precisely economic crises such as this one we all live through every day that pseudonymous Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto conceived the philosophy of a decentralized, immutable, fungible, fixed-supply asset like Bitcoin. Staying on the sideline just isn't possible anymore; there will only be winners and losers, and winners will be made (or enriched) by owning hard assets, such as real estate, commodities, precious metals, stocks, Bitcoin, and Ethereum.
“Bitcoin was born in a financial crisis. It will come of age in this one.”
- Dan Morehead, Pantera Capital
I post these insights because I like learning, analyzing data, and taking calculated risks. If the community likes these posts, I will continue posting them on a daily basis. If not, no harm, I will keep them to myself.