I’ve been closely watching the on-chain data.
And something important has become very apparent.
Everyone is asking: “Is the bottom in?”
The short answer: Not yet.
Here’s what the data actually says.
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What the Indicators Show
Three key on-chain indicators are still a long way off from the levels that have always been hit during cycle bottoms .
* NUPL:Net Unrealized Profit/LossCurrently 0.11, which is in the "Hope/Fear" range but nowhere near the negative "Capitulation" range hit at the bottom of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets . When Bitcoin dropped to $15k in Nov 2022 it was in negative range and currently it is positive.
* MVRV Z-Score: Bitcoin is trading close to fair value, but not at the profoundly undervalued levels hit at previous cycle lows . The indicator hit -0.286 at the Nov 2022 low and -0.20 at the March 2020 low, but now sits at 0.22. The market is close, but not there.
* Puell Multiple: This metric tracks the profitability of miners, and while it dipped to 0.51 on June 3rd, that reading is still above 0.5, the level that historically signals miner capitulation .
Although all three indicators have dropped this cycle, none have yet reached their extreme bottoms .
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The Timing Question
The halving calendar suggests that a bottom isn’t confirmed yet.
Bitcoin’s last halving took place in April 2024. Historically, the bull-market peak follows the halving between 12-18 months after, while the bear market bottom follows 24-28 months after the same event .
Following this cycle's precedent - the market peaked about 18 months after the last halving (Oct 2025). If we assume the common peak-to-trough period of 12-15 months experienced in previous bear markets (2018, 2022), the likely bottom could be in Oct 2026 - Jan 2027.Q4 2026 looks most probable.
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What Analysts Are Saying
Many analysts, including some prominent ones, are in agreement with this timing.
* Benjamin Cowen:In a July memo, Cowen forecasts a bottom in Q4 2026, likely around $44,000 . He states that his model is in “bottom watch mode”, and the low is months away, not weeks, predicting a second-half decay similar to 2014, 2018, and 2022.
* Bloomberg ETF analyst: The analyst reported that ETF holders continue to sell net - taking out one of the biggest sources of demand that propped up previous prices .
* Galaxy Digital:The firm found that only four out of thirteen indicators signaling previous cycle bottoms are currently met, and its base case prediction is for a bottom between $40k and $46k in Q4 2026 .
* Standard Chartered: More optimistic, the firm called the bottom at $59k and targets $100k by year-end.
* NYDIG:This firm views the current price as Bitcoin’s shallowest-ever bear market, believing this may be the cycle’s floor .
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The Consensus
Regardless of their differing price targets, all three firms (Cowen, Galaxy, and Bloomberg) agree on three points:
1. The bottom will occur in 2026.
2. Bitcoin is more likely to be at the bottom than the peak.
3. Another bull market will follow.
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What This Means for You
The data makes it clear: the bottom is coming, but we’re not there yet. We are in the late stages of a bear market. The indicators are moving in the right direction, but not at the extreme levels historically associated with bottoms.
For dollar-cost averaging (DCA) investors, the current phase - where short-term holders’ cost basis is below long-term holders’ cost basis - typically presents favorable opportunities for accumulation.
For traders, keep Q4 2026 on your radar.
Stay disciplined, stay patient, and keep watching the data.
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What’s your read on the current market? Let me know in the comments below!
