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U.S. Time Zone Turns Hawks to Doves as Officials Sell Out — 2022/08/19

By CryptEducator | CrypCrack | 19 Aug 2022


Current Summary:

More junior partners should still be concerned about why the BTC, which has been relatively stable, has been hit even worse by the start of the morning's continuous decline at 7 a.m., but the extent to which the ETH price, which continues to enjoy the benefits of consolidation, has been limited. Even as prices fall, the BTC and ETH exchange rates actually rise, and have now broken through 0.08, which is a good opportunity for those who do not favor ETH consolidation. So I have some ideas, but let's start with the details of the data and see if we can find some clues. First of all, it is very intuitive to know that at the time of the handover between the US and Asia, there have been many times in history that this time was the time when the market crashed, especially two sharp falls on Saturdays. But this time is really the time when the market crashed, and it is depends on who is doing it.

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As of 10:00 this morning, the data from 21:29 p.m. to the present day, this data can clearly tell us what price the holders of the long positions are selling during this period. Looking at the extreme prices on both sides, the ancient positions and the high-value BTC have continued their all-time low circulation trend, with the total reduction on both sides of the holdings reaching less than 930 chips, which first excludes the high profit and loss holders. Then looking at the overall loss chips above the $25,000 mark, we can also see that this portion of the chip is less than 3,600 BTCs, which also includes the high-hanging chip above the $50,000 mark, so it is clear from this data that the drop that is occurring today has almost nothing to do with the chips that were in the earlier position, and even if all of the less than 3,600 BTCs hit the market, there would be no big splash. So obviously, today's dominant selling pressure is still current dispute prices, and when we learn this data, it becomes clear that if the early BTC holders were not involved in a deal-breaker, the magnitude of that decline would be limited, because it would not cause panic, and the price of either a gain or a loss would not be much different from the current dispute prices, so it would be very difficult to trigger a short-term sharp price drop. In the absence of a change of direction in macro policy, this is not enough to cause an emotional panic, so the current downturn can be viewed as a risk-off move for short-term holders, and there is no panic selling yet, especially for the BTCs that are reducing their holdings. Structurally, fewer than 11,000 BTCs are leaving the overall bottom of the $22,000 range, with more chips in the red. The price of BTCs' shares falling by more than 63,000 units from $23,000 to $24,000, compared to more than five times the amount of early loss chips and earnings chips, not all of which were falling through the floor of the stock exchange, but the proportion of loss chips in the $2,000 range that were falling through the floor of the stock exchange remained the dominant force behind the new market inflows.

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Knowing who is in charge of the smash, we'll see if the smash will cause a big shock. From the data up to 8:00 a.m. this morning, the BTC selling pressure transferred to the exchange is relatively week's data, but the decline, indicating that the overall caused selling pressure is not very strong, and on the other hand, the exchange transfer reflects the data, not only a high level during the week even a large amount of data beyond the selling pressure. That suggests buying sentiment is not down. That is, before 8 a.m., the overall selling pressure didn't pick up much, and although a Fed FOMC committee member made a more hawkish speech in the early hours, it didn't get much feedback from the market, and while the 50 basis point rate hike in September that was forecast dropped from 63% to 59.5%, it still wasn't a big macro mood killer, and we're going to talk about the dollar index later.

When we switch to the details data, we can see more clearly. From 20:00 pm yesterday to 12:00 pm in Beijing, we can see that although there was some selling pressure after 8:30 a.m. that shifted to the stock exchanges, these selling pressure was obviously "panic" after the price fell. Although it did play a role of "compensating the falling price, it was not the main reason for the price fall.

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What is more obvious from the detailed stock exchange BTC data is that more BTCs have actually shifted onto exchanges since 1 a.m. this morning, when Fed officials were ready to speak, so shifting more risk-off chips onto exchanges had been said many times already, and this time the officials were hawkish. So the details of the movement can be seen in the BTC price, although still has fluctuations, but already in a downward trend of volatility, and the stock exchange inventory is also increasing until 7 a.m. when there was a more substantial reduction in holdings, basically until the American end of the trading cycle, to see price increases for the time being and smash away, and then the Asian time zone, to see prices drop caused some panic selling. But the shift from BTC to BTC has already seen the amount of chips now shifting to exchanges gradually decrease. Although the stock of exchanges is indeed piling up, it is not that there is a very large scale, and there is no obvious sign that these chips will fall off immediately. So it is hard to see a sharp fall in prices in the short term, especially with three hours to go into Europe's dominant trading timezone, and the conclusion is not yet known.

From the financial level, the same amount of funds from 20 pm last night, we can see that the amount of funds yesterday compared to the previous day has already seen a large reduction, especially the reduction of buying power USDT also will affect the supply of purchasing power. And from the historical data, we can also find that from 4 am, whether it is USDT or USDC will enter a period of decay, at least until 15 pm to 16 pm will likely increase. So far we've basically reviewed the major causes of this decline, and although it was near the main trading hours in Asia, it was triggered by traders in the U.S. time zone, and because hawkish statements by Federal Reserve officials triggered selling pressure from some traders in the U.S. time zone, and the morning's Asian main trading time zone knife attack did trigger further declines in BTC prices. But there are still some holders of currencies who think the trend is not going to be good. shift the chips to the exchanges, but wait and see if they see a price recovery and may choose to exit after that. So the wait-and-see also led to a temporary stabilization in the BTC's price. After all, there was no change in the underlying mood, and only one of the three Fed officials who spoke in the early hours of this morning was more hawkish, so it was not enough to spark a major panic in the market. So, as things stand, it is likely that the BTC will remain volatile in the short run.

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On the other hand, people's most concerned about the funding issue, the situation is not very good, first of all, the USDT external funds up to 8:00 this morning, not only did not have the trend of entry, but also reduced about 6 million US dollars, USDC is even more dramatic, a direct reduction of 300 million US dollars, directly erased the USDT's recent growth in the last period, the overall amount of funds within the currency market showed the downward trend. And that has a lot to do with the dollar index.

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Since 21:00 last night, the dollar index has shown a rising trend, and much of this is because of the depreciation of the euro, but no matter how the rise in the "value" of the dollar will definitely have an impact on investment in risk markets, more holders of French currency will prefer to hold US dollars directly or invest in US dollar assets, such as Treasury bonds, so the trend of buying US Treasury bonds can be seen in the same time.

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In particular, medium and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds are getting more heavily involved, and this part of the funding is basically from the risk markets. The other is that there will be a $2 trillion expiration of options when U.S. stocks open today, which may be volatile, and the stock market volatility will inevitably affect the currency market, so this could also be one of the reasons for the fall this morning.

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CryptEducator
CryptEducator

A Crypto and web3 enthusiast , who is always update of the future and history that's why a bad trader....HEHEHE.


CrypCrack
CrypCrack

A Crypto and web3 enthusiast , who is always update of the future and history that's why a bad trader....HEHEHE.

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