After the start of the new week, the Nasdaq still struggles at the bottom, and the highly correlated BTC and ETH are also hard to break out of the independent market. Especially after the ETH merger ended, the current currency market has no inspirational information, so the overall trend is in step with the technology stocks, which are affected by the bigger macro sentiment. The current game is still to look at the CPI in 10 days. and a Fed rate hike a month later. September is over for good, but the September CPI is the key determinant of the Fed's next interest-rate hike. From the information available now, the CPI is not good, and even the broad CPI is not necessarily lower, supported by falling oil prices and housing prices, while food and rents continue to rise. It is more likely that the core CPI that feeds through in this case will continue to rise.
and a Fed rate hike a month later. September is over for good, but the September CPI is the key determinant of the Fed's next interest-rate hike. From the information available now, the CPI is not good, and even the broad CPI is not necessarily lower, supported by falling oil prices and housing prices, while food and rents continue to rise. It is more likely that the core CPI that feeds through in this case will continue to rise.
So if the US Federal Reserve is committed to fighting inflation as its main objective, and is willing to intensify the recession in the US and the rise in unemployment, a 75-basis-point rate hike in early November may be the most conservative option, while a 50-basis-point hike is almost impossible. But the current market forecasts put it in a renewed confrontation with the Fed, which is currently only 58% likely to raise interest rates by 75% in November. Last week it was more than 70%, and given last week's strains on global financial markets, there were multiple calls to the Fed from Monday's start, which summed up the message that "excessive monetary tightening could cause a global recession". After all, the dollar index is still high and would inevitably have a strong impact on financial markets, especially after a 75 basis point rise.
After all, the issue of September will be the issue of October. After all, inflation is still the main issue. Since October, the most obvious decision was made to reduce oil production under the proposal of OPEC+. This has led to a continued retaliatory rebound in oil prices of both oils. Brent oil hit $90 at one point, while WTI oil reached almost $85. Oil prices have almost returned to the average price in September, which means that transportation costs are increasing. In addition, frequent natural disasters and the expansion of geopolitical conflicts have led to food prices still not falling significantly, and food production has been reduced in many places. After October in particular, Europe has started to move gradually into winter, and the decrease in hot air has caused the price of coal to surge, even reaching the United States, where the price has already broken through $200, a new low since 2005. This winter will be especially difficult for many people. So in all respects, don't say that the September CPI, although the CPI shown for October has a tendency to decrease, but through these four days the trend has shown that it is possible to continue to go higher. If the Fed continues to stumble, don't say that it is preparing for the mid-term election, even Biden is likely to have a headache. On the other hand, as has been hinted this week, there will gradually be some performance information from the tech leaders starting in October. Judging from the current trend, Meta has been hit by significant layoffs, and the situation is not encouraging. Tesla's share price has fallen in the past two days because deliveries have fallen short of expectations, and the robot has not been able to turn round. Even Apple has been floated as a possible 5% decline in APP Store's revenues last month. That was the biggest drop since 2005. The main reason for the decline was a collapse in gaming revenues, which are down about 14%, suggesting that the overall gaming sector in the United States may not be doing too well. Even the Google stores are affected. These are all known, and if they are, there is still a need to pay more attention to the downside volatility that must have been created when the results were announced.
On the other hand, the US dollar index did show a downward trend with volatility after the opening of trading yesterday. However, it is still not certain that it has reached a peak. After all, there may be more than one 75 basis points behind the US Federal Reserve. In particular, if the CPI released on October 13 exceeds expectations, it is likely that the US dollar index will break through the high point again after market forecasts that the US Federal Reserve will probably increase interest rates further. This will inevitably lead to a new round of injury to friends.
Just a little bit can let the market relax is the U.S. debt from a large number of reduced holdings appear buying sentiment, especially in the medium and long-term U.S. debt showed a trend of buying, which is the flow of poor U.S. debt injected energy, and only when U.S. debt does not have enough income guarantee, there will be more money to choose to enter the risk market, so the decline of the dollar index and U.S. debt buying for risk markets are a good start.
The fundamentals of the currency market are not good enough relative to the growing macro sentiment. The main manifestation of that is the market value of the stable currency. After all, the ceiling on the market value of the stable currency represents the ceiling on purchasing power. As of 8am today, USDT's market capitalization has not budged, nor even in the last half-month, suggesting that European and Asian OTC play is still on the cards.
As for USDC, which is a measure of major U.S. investment capital, there is no doubt that it continues to shed its holdings. As of 8:00 a.m. this morning, the market had dropped by nearly $2 million, directly reducing its holdings by more than $2 billion in a week. This represents a flight from the dollar, even as the dollar index has fallen. And BUSD, the successor to USDC, is as quiet as USDT.
The most famous decentralized stablecoin, the DAI that represents the ETH's physical leverage, continued to underweight its market value by more than $30 million even after the ETH price had rebounded, suggesting that either more ETH holders are unhappy with the ETH's short-term future, or are seeking alternative sources of collateral. So the overall market value of the four main stabilizers is not encouraging, and a lot of money is continuing to flow out.
Although the USDT did show an upward trend after the end of the weekend's main purchasing power, the data turned over to the stock exchange at 8:00 a.m. this morning were only higher than the data on the weekend. There was still a certain gap compared with the purchasing power in the same period last week. This represents a downward trend in purchasing sentiment, and you can understand it. After all, it has been so long that both sides are tired and waiting for further changes.
From the throwing pressure transferred to the exchange, both BTC and ETH have finished the holiday and returned to the normal working day. The circulation of ETH has increased, but relatively speaking, the throwing pressure of ETH has increased significantly. This is also the result of the analysis of more than 90,000 ETH transferred to Binance last night. Although it is difficult to give a 100% accurate answer at present, from the data comparison, the exchange is more likely to turn to each other.
BTC's move overtook it for now, judging by the exchange's data on withdrawals, with the exchange's exit chips perfectly covered by the selling pressure, causing more chips to leave the exchange. Although the ETH has a large amount of Gemini transfer out cash, but still can not cover the Binance transfer in, but after more than 10 hours, the transfer into the ETH has no significant change, there is no large-scale transfer out, it is not like throwing pressure.
That is one of the reasons why the exchange is trading with each other. Another is that Gemini, which had a strong outflow, had a similar inflow on Friday, leaving after a weekend. It is also difficult to think of the user's withdrawal behavior, so whether Binance or Gemini transfer out, more likely to be their own hot and cold purse sorting behavior.
And from the stock charts currently available at known exchange addresses, it is true that BTC's stock is falling relative to the stock on the exchange, which reduces the risk of a larger crash, so prices are firmer. In the case of ETH, though inventories have risen again, the impact on ETH prices has not been severe, if the analysis is correct and more chips are in itself.
I haven't seen the BTC miners' coins for some time. I have seen the data as of 8:00 this morning. Although the amount of coins held by the miners is in a continuous decline, the rate of decrease is very low. In the last month, just over 400 BTCs have been sold. However, the amount of coins held by the miners is still over 1.83 million, so there is really no point to pay attention to. It also suggests that even a few near-shutdowns have left miners unmoved.
In contrast, although the ETH POS "miners" did not work for a long time, the ratio of currency holdings and circulation was higher than the BTC, and there is no possibility of turning into throwing pressure. However, there are still tens of thousands of ETHs pledged to the POS every day, and the proportion of circulation is steadily increasing. The only pity is that it's so hard to come up with a deal, and the increasing number of certifying people is causing the returns to keep falling.
In contrast, although the ETH POS "miners" did not work for a long time, the ratio of currency holdings and circulation was higher than the BTC, and there is no possibility of turning into throwing pressure. However, there are still tens of thousands of ETHs pledged to the POS every day, and the proportion of circulation is steadily increasing. The only pity is that it's so hard to come up with a deal, and the increasing number of certifying people is causing the returns to keep falling.
In the short term, the technology stocks' financial statements may not be able to boost the market's confidence, so short-term operations should also remain more cautious. There is no clear information yet that the current risk market has reached the bottom. If the CPI data on November 13 are indeed bad, the possibility of a high-quota interest rate increase on November 3 will increase, and it will also trigger a new round of risks. The Nasdaq futures are now in a state of subsequent weakness, largely depending on whether the Europeans do their bit. PS: Youtube is still experimenting with different styles, but the aim is to reduce your losses by using data better. I hope our little friends will enjoy it. If you have any suggestions and opinions, please do not hesitate to give them a lecture. At present, the intention is to focus on text updates of Twitter during the day, mainly on macro and daily data, and focus on video content at night, and the content of the lecture is still being considered. Thank you for your support
