Current Summary:

Nothing much has changed on the macro front lately, especially since the Fed hasn't released any information publicly, so the emotional impact hasn't happened yet. But the macro mood is based on the logic that "inflation peaks, slowing rate hikes" risk markets will bottom out. The main game is whether the Fed will start to lower interest rates in September. According to current projections, the chance of a 50-basis-point increase is 61.5%. The forecast of higher interest rates is still in line with the economists' market expectations, so the U.S. stock market is still going up with volatility, especially as the Nasdaq's recent gains have been good and the daily line shows a steady rise. And the BTC and ETH related to the Na Zhi have received good attention, but because of the oblique investment of funds and other issues, the current BTC and ETH and the Na Zhi decoupling more obvious, especially BTC. The main reason is that the size of the currency market is too small. Especially from the ETH merger, the currency market is not as supportive as U.S. stocks, but more on consensus, and besides the cyclical can generate favorable factors too little, which leads to the currency market is more important for the funding, and when facing the situation of funding constraints, it can only rely on the power of emotion, which is the biggest problem that the currency market is facing.

Currently, the DXY has been rising for three days in a row, mainly because of the expectation of recession in Europe, so the euro has also fallen against the US dollar. We have also analyzed that the Europeans prefer the US financial market, so the expectation of recession in Europe also benefits the US bond market and risk market. Especially at present, the Europeans are the main buyers of the BTC.

However, the market of U.S. Treasury bonds is still more troubled. Yesterday, the main trading time zone in Europe showed large signs of buying U.S. Treasury bonds. But when entering the main time zone in the U.S., there was a sell-off of U.S. Treasury bonds. Until the closing of U.S. stocks, the momentum of continued buying began. This U.S. Treasury bonds are like a daily confrontation with the market, but instead become a Damocles sword floating in the risk market. Two-year and ten-year yields have come close, but they have been dragged back down by a series of sell-offs, with the gap widening again to more than 40 basis points. Even yesterday's manufacturing data from the New York Fed shows signs of not only a manufacturing recession, but of a sharp drop in employment. At present, signs that the Fed is insisting that the US economy is not in recession are all but unfounded.

And from the perspective of the departure of U.S. Treasury money, there is still no clear direction to see where the money is going, but the currency market has appeared USDT's market value continues to increase. Although it is not sure whether the money is coming out of the bond market, and USDC's market value is also decreasing, but still can not cover up the situation that USDT led to the increase in the market value of the stable currency. Today, USDT is increasing by nearly $200 million per day, while USDC is decreasing by more than $100 million per day. So by comparison, it's true that the market value of the stablecoin is increasing. Even with the USDC dragging its feet, the overall stablecoin market value has increased by roughly $400 million in the last two weeks, a long way from the USDT peak, but more money coming in is good. It means that the opportunities of the currency market are beginning to increase, and investors' confidence in the currency market is gradually increasing. As long as the macro sentiment is not bad, there is an opportunity.

In addition, although the BTC and ETH prices began to fall from Monday afternoon, especially the ETH price drops relatively large, but the overall volume of transactions not only did not fall but also showed an increasing trend. And from the overall into the purchasing power of the exchange, although USDT purchasing power is still not strong enough, but compared to last week three consecutive days nearly half-year minimum, USDC is more obvious with an increasing trend. Especially from the stock exchange capital situation, the capital stock of USDT has not changed significantly, indicating that the capital transferred into the exchange has basically left again, so the conversion into purchasing power is still good, but the stock of capital without a sign of end, and the stock of USDC exchange stock is continuously decreasing, but considering the current exchange rate problems of USDC and USDT, as well as the USDC transaction volume, the probability of USDC used to move bricks is higher. Therefore, from the perspective of the overall situation of the funds, first is the gradual return of external funds, which is bound to be a good help for the current shortage of funds, but the funds transferred into the relatively low, it is difficult to form a large-scale change, second is the current purchasing power is still not a significant improvement, which also represents the current market is still ETH merger as the core advantage, but the hype has been too long. Since last week, the amount of money has been found to be gradually declining after a short-term high, which means that the FOMO sentiment is also gradually receding. Consider that, especially since the ETH broke through $2,000, the bottom has basically doubled, there is already a mood that the money is beginning to wait and see, mainly because there is a fear that the ETH will not be able to increase on a large scale, so in this regard, it is still necessary to release a macro-mood favorable release. As of 8:00 this morning, we can see that the current BTC position in the chain continues to change in the same way as before, more address fluctuations are only limited to the current dispute price, while the earlier holding of chips continues to maintain the flat trend, from here we can see that the current BTC situation is relatively stable, and there is no large-scale transfer phenomenon.

From the BTC into the exchange of selling pressure and exchange data, BTC activity has increased, although more from the current dispute prices, but it can still be seen that users of short-term operations began to bear it, especially when prices showed signs of falling, but the current buying mood is relatively good, so even if the selling pressure increased, it can still bear it. This question has also been said many times, especially from the comparison of prices and selling pressure, we can see that the falling price is not because the external selling pressure increased, but because many holders of BTC had moved to the exchange ahead of the release of the CPI, because they were afraid of a falling situation. Although the CPI data afterwards is good, some chips have stayed on the exchange, in order to prevent the loss of earnings. So you can see that when prices go down, these chips that stay on the exchange will leave as soon as possible. After all, it's the profit that's most important to these money holders, and that's what causes the drop. But it's actually because of the low circulation at the weekend. If you compare prices, it's almost the same as Friday. However, the market is still full of negative information, including 145,000 ETH crashes and 150,000 BTCs released from the Mentougou, which puts pressure on the major stockholders. But these rumors are just rumors, which are hard to affect in essence the progress of the Broad Trend.

And the details of the transfer from the BTC also show that Europeans' purchasing power has not declined, and even though a lot of money has already entered the U.S. bond market, there is still relatively high purchasing power in buying the BTC. Even the ETH details show that there were large purchases in the main trading time zones in Europe and the US yesterday, so the merger hype in western markets is not over yet.

But there is no denying that, relative to BTC, the current ETH is merely a positive spin, and that there are too many winning bets. With the $2,000 haven't stabilized, sentiment among many investors is changing, and they are choosing to put more bets on the exchange, where they can exit as soon as possible without losing control. So the current mood of ETH buying is good, but it still cannot cover the overall selling pressure, and more chips are staying on the exchange. So the trend of ETH as a whole is to merge in favor of the good, and the price trend will still mainly be volatile, in the current situation and the amount of capital, high leverage in one direction is still very dangerous. Directionally, as long as there is no clear change in macro sentiment, volatility trends will not change.