The tone has not changed. In the past 24 hours, Fed officials have been speaking, mostly hawkish, and even directly "aggressively raising interest rates" in September. But the market's reaction has been much the same as it was yesterday, with the Fed suppressing the economy to bring down inflation and U.S. stocks surging, with little impact on the Nasdaq.

However, BTC and ETH are relatively rare when the NASDAQ futures rise and actually go down. Based on the result, we can conclude that many of the users of the currency market are alarmed by the hawkish speeches of the Federal Reserve. Or, today's currency market is already rising well, more chips are not willing to run with them. Especially, ETH is in a very obvious situation. BTC follows closely, but ETH shows signs of falling early. Moreover, judging from the market reaction, there is a distinct sense that the market is not following the path that the Fed has designed in advance. As a rule, when so many Fed officials are hawkish in succession, the market should be falling in anticipation of a 75-basis-point interest rate hike in September. But there was no thought that the market was not doing this, with some commentators interpreting this as meaning that the market had anticipated a 75 basis point increase in September, and so was no longer interested in repeating such talk.

But, remember, a 75-basis-point increase in September may be the last time the Fed will raise interest rates at a high level (if CPI does not reverse), but it does not signal a reversal in November and December, given that the definition of the terminal rate was behind the increase. Nearly every Fed official speaking was talking about a minimum of 4% in the terminal interest rate, or even suggesting that it would be better to raise rates to 4% by the end of the year. Which means there's another 75 on the back. It is time to think beyond today's CPI and rate hikes and take a longer view of US inflation and the medium-term election. From the Fed's point of view, what sort of market moves would satisfy pent-up demand and keep the downside from having an impact on the midterm elections for the time being. After all, if Trump takes office again, it is a matter of whether Powell's position will hold up, and Powell's heroic dream is probably gone. On the other hand, Waller and George both refer to the problem of deflation, but interestingly enough, as if fearful of confusing the market with a false understanding of the phenomenon, Waller goes out of his way to explain the impact of a $1 trillion contraction on interest rates by 25 basis points, whereas the current monthly limit is $96 billion, which does not mean monthly contraction of $96 billion, which is the largest amount ever, and the actual implementation is another matter.

And, as far as US Treasury debt is concerned, it is a bit of a stretch. Yields on Treasury bonds, which have gone from hot food to hot potato, have been rising almost across the board, keeping money flowing. This is a big headache for a Fed that wants to shrink its balance sheet - especially since the Fed itself is the largest holder of Treasury debt and needs to sell roughly $16 billion if it is to achieve its planned reduction. And the reason that the market is going up against the Fed, even after hawkish statements from Fed officials, is probably more a bet on the Fed's resolve than the 75 basis points expected. After all, judging from the US household-asset data released early this morning, there have been two consecutive quarters of declines in US household total assets, especially the record-breaking second quarter, when stocks lost $7.7 trillion. The Fed's biggest headache is not now. It's Mr. Biden and the Democrats. So the market started to see expectations of a rise in the CPI after it had seen expectations of 8.1%. But it is not too optimistic that the Fed will have the decision for now.

Now that external macro sentiment is unstable, the soaring dollar index has finally dipped, albeit with a strong European interest-rate hike of 75 basis points, but by the same margin as we have seen, it has not yet recovered from its high level. The euro exchange rate is barely back above the "one," but the inexorable rise of the DXY is exactly what the Fed wants. If it raises interest rates by 75% in September, there could be another round of dollar appreciation, which would be bad for risk markets.

What has been happening in the US bond market can only be described as magic lately. As of 4 a.m. this morning, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds was all over the current federal funds rate, and except for the scattered purchase of long-term U.S. bonds, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has been rising at all times. It is also no wonder that the Fed's tapering plans are beginning to add to the MBS equation, with the two-year Treasury yield essentially seen as the current terminal rate. I'm tired of talking about a lot of macro data every day, and I probably have a lot of friends who don't like it, but in fact, the rise and fall of the price of the currency is revealed in this information, which is why I've always been a firm believer that the current market is a volatile trend when people are either short or long, and this trend doesn't depend on the so-called support line or pressure line, so when the BTC goes down over 19,000 dollars, I'm pretty sure it's okay. Because that's how the macro-mood is, every day the game theory of the market is changing, and it was 50 or 75 in September, and then it was the mid-term election, and now it's the end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-year end-of-of-year end-of- Going against the trend is about giving money to the market. And the trend is the macro mood, in this mountain of crap above each day.

U.S. bonds have almost no large amount of money going out, but where to go is not clear at this time. Although gold may attract some funds, it is certainly not the main source of funds, but this is a good omen. Non-U.S. gold assets are trending upward. The market value of the overall stablecoin is the best basis for judging whether there is money coming in, but for now the USDT is still moving at a level that is not increasing or decreasing.

The USDT represents more European and Asian money, and the US, where institutional and principal capital is the majority, is still mainly using USDC. From now on, the overall performance of USDC is not satisfactory and remains on a downward trend with volatility. Market values continue to fall. However, BUSD almost became the biggest winner in the field of shorting the USDT Start Stablecoin, and even by 8:00 this morning, BUSD's market value had increased by another $120 million.

DAI's market capitalization is currently on a trend of almost a narrow swing. As of 8:00 this morning, DAI's value has dropped by about $2 million. This is not a big deal, especially as the date of the ETH merger is getting closer. DAI is not the only one who should see more ETH leaving the contract. After all, the market is not good right now. So looking at the overall stablecoin situation, there is still not much change. More money has been coming into the market through BUSD in the past week, and the purchasing power of BUSD is indeed good. Although the market mood is strange now, the rising currency prices and FOMO sentiment, seen by laypeople, will not be banished during the holidays. After all, when the main funds and the main selling pressure are away, a small amount of funds can pull the market.

In fact, from the BTC and ETH into the exchange of selling pressure data, although from the price can see that the BTC is rising more happily, but also on the selling pressure is precisely because the BTC price is rising faster, resulting in more chips rushed into the exchange in order to find a better time to sell. While the price increase was relatively low, the merger boon encouraged ETH positions, so selling pressure decreased as prices rose. I tried to be lazy, but I thought I'd have to look at the details to get a clearer picture. From yesterday's detail data, it can be seen that the selling pressure of the BTC started at around 15 p.m. Beijing time and continued all the way to the closing of US stocks, namely at 4 a.m. This suggests that both Europeans and Americans are the main drivers of pressure. But the sell-off in the ETH has not been too pronounced.

There is selling pressure will be raised, although the selling pressure of BTC is very high, but the buying situation is not too bad, but there is still no way to cover the overall selling pressure, so there are still some chips stuck in the exchange, especially the CPI data is about to come out, even if the cautious holders do not sell now, they will be transferred to the exchange ahead of schedule to avoid risk. The ETH, on the other hand, continues to see the opposite pattern, with its own selling pressure relatively low and the amount of data available for rollover. In particular, the detail of the data suggests that BTC's main buying was in Europe's main trading timezone, while a drop in buying power was clearly felt in the US timezone. ETH's main buying force will continue to be in Asian time zones, where more withdrawals can be seen, so the holiday needs to be more careful.

From the purchasing power of funds, we can still see that more in stock is still in a wait-and-see state. The purchasing power of funds is almost the same every day. Most days the purchasing power is not too much. But a few days the purchasing power can also be kept. Therefore, my personal estimation, the estimated purchasing power is not a bottom, the gap should not be too great. More will wait for the Fed decision in September, and then see the market and the changes in sentiment.

BTC and ETH stock data in the exchange, the general trend is similar, whether BTC or ETH are in the relative bottom of the stock in the last four years, the overpressure is not very high, the biggest difference is because the merger of ETH, resulting in the stock in a sustained decline, even the publication date of CPI will not have too much interference, and BTC is affected by more nano, under caution will be more in the exchange.

Since 4 a.m., while the closing of the U.S. stock market officially extends into the weekend, without guidance from the Nasdaq futures, more below-price observations will still be emotional. I don't expect everyone to see this seriously, but help one. The change in mood will be more pragmatic for BTC, which should be a good craft. The iron-headed and highly leveraged ETH would like you to at least take some of that off.