I have been on the fence when it comes down to the Land Expansion in Splinterlands not yet knowing how to play it despite doing the needed preparations a couple of weeks ago (See Getting Ready For Land Expansion). Yesterday the Whitepaper dropped for stage 1.5 of the Secret Of Praetoria Expansion and I kind of made up my mind what to do...
Overall I can't say I'm overly excited about the land expansion to the point where I'm likely to just skip it mostly eventually just buying some of the needed spells and items to stay competitive in the game while using the hype and the money that comes in from most of the player base to start taking some actual profit reducing my overall exposure of in-game assets.
I'm coming up to being 5 full years into playing Splinterlands and managed to be part of the most profitable period where it was actually possible to organically grow your account just by putting time into it. By now, the game is hardly play2earn anymore for newer players with quite high requirements to get to a point where you are actually earning with the Soulbound reward cards. I do see another adoption cycle during the next bull run but that might push things to a point where there is little actual growth left since the requirements of the number of new players that need to come in to hold up prices always increase.
These are some of the reasons why I'm not getting all to excited about the Land Expansion.
The Potential Profitability Numbers
In the end, the potential earnings remain the main selling point of Splinterlands so when it comes down to land, the numbers and the returns need to make sense. Right now for me doing just some basic calculations, they don't really add up compared to the cost and the risk.
Total Land Rewards: So the entire idea of land is that Spells and Items that I believe similar to cards will come in packs that are minted by players. There are also SPS rewards in a total of 6,250,000 SPS a month for 65 months set out for Land of which part is being paid out already right now. Looking at The Chaos Legion set which went at 4$ a pack and 15 Million packs, it adds up to 60 Million dollars which in total was a lot less as many packs were burned, given out as rewards, bonus packs, discounted price,...
So if 25 Million dollars actually came in from those packs it will be a lot. Since there is less incentive with no airdrop cards and promos on the Item and spell packs, let's assume 20 Million Dollars in total will be the value of them. There are 150k Plots so on average the potential earnings for each plot is just 133$, for the SPS rewards on average that is roughly 2700 SPS currently ~80$.
The cost to 'play' the land expansion adds up to needing plots of land which right now each go for roughly 150$, you need the starter packages which set you back 30k DEC, DEC to burn into buildings to upgrade similar to guilds, Cards staked on land that otherwise can be used to play with or to put up for rental and DEC for each card that is staked, taxes that need to be paid, totems, ... All of this along with time that otherwise can be used to do more productive and fun things.
So looking at all this, it just doesn't seem worth it for me and I rather have funds free to get into altcoins that have more potential to go up in price during the next bull run possibly also providing passive earnings on top.
The Actual Land Gameplay
Let's be clear on this, the entire land expansion didn't come from an angle where they wanted to make a game that is actually fun like Splinterlands, instead, it was mostly a tool to collect a lot of money at the start of the previous bull market as the land narrative was hot. Also, the main purpose of land mainly is to put old assets to use in order to 'kick the bucket a bit further' down the line before having to come up with a new mechanic or token to keep the value up and rewards going unless crazy adoption happens.
From what it looks like all of it is mostly just going to be excel sheet gameplay with idle staking mechanics and not much more which personally I just don't enjoy. As much as I enjoy the strategy and collecting aspect that the main Splinterlands game provides, the land expansion just seems to all be about staking a bunch of stuff in order to mint spells and items while getting some SPS.
Expectation & Personal Plans
I do expect the majority to play the land mining game trying to get their hands on the rewards which should help to pump most Splinterlands assets in the process so the devs actually can get Rebellion packs sold at a decent price. However, I do expect land plots themselves to drop in price. right now there is some hype and those who have a tract or a region can't yet sell individual plots. Once that is enabled there will be a flood of supply which likely will push the price down. Most plots will also be common plots and those likely will go for much lower prices with a few lucky ones getting a castle or a keep.
I already sold 1 plot for 360 Hive and I will likely sell a couple more to reinvest in other cryptos which I expect will go up more and be a better investment during the coming years. I do plan to keep a couple plots to have some fun with and if common plots turn out the be affordable I might get some of those later down the line if the numbers actually make some sense since I have enough cards. If there is a big supply shock and prices of cards would go up considerably, I will start slowly but surely selling off part of my collection that I don't use regularly.
I do aim to keep playing the Splinterlandsgame itself which I still enjoy also because it's still profitable enough as I have the card collection to be competitive. Once spells and items come into the mix, I will look to get those off the market if it makes sense and I will see from there on out where it goes. I also still very much like SPS as passive crypto assets and with a burn kicking in it should be good as a long-term hold.
After nearly 5 years playing Splinterlands and accumulating assets, I will be using the land expansion as an event to take some profit as everything about it should help to push prices higher. I don't think the land gameplay is something that i would actually enjoy while the numbers of my basic calculations also indicate that the returns actually won't be that high unless you are willing to be very patient and play the long game. Off course, all it might be different than I anticipate and I'm curious how everything will end up turning out.
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