Several commodities analysts have warned that the price of oil could collapse next year if OPEC+ undoes its existing production cuts.

“There is more fear about oil prices in 2025 than in recent years, any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” emphasized Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency. .

If all agreements to control crude oil production fall, oil "could reach 30 or 40 USD per barrel." If this forecast comes true, black oil would lose 40% of its value.

At the time of writing, Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, fell 0.6% in the last 24 hours to $71.40. While WTI, a US metric, fell 0.8% to 67.60 USD.

Fundamentals do not help oil

Experts estimate that demand growth during 2025 will be around 1 million barrels per day.

That is why, if OPEC+ continues with its production plan, the market surplus could double, highlighted Martoccia Francesco, energy strategist at Citi.

A surplus of such magnitude “would amount to a price war for market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid,” said MST Marquee senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic.

Investors are paying attention to what happens in China. The Asian country is the main importer of crude oil and its slow economic recovery also affects the demand for oil and its price.