Bitcoin is approaching $100,000 after several months, but... is there any chance of it continuing?

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose to nearly $98,000 (USD) today, continuing its upward trend so far in 2026. Does this mean the year will continue in this way, or is this surge just temporary?

Well, there are differing opinions in the market. Many expect Bitcoin to continue its typical four-year pattern, which would mean that 2026 will be a bearish period for the digital currency.

Bitcoin typically reaches the peak of a bull market around a year and a half after its halving. This term refers to the event that reduces the total number of bitcoins in circulation by half, occurring approximately every four years.

This would mean that reaching the record high of $126,000 three months ago, in October, could have been the peak of this cycle for Bitcoin. In other words, the market could be entering a prolonged bear market, potentially until a new bull market begins in 2027, if history repeats itself.

However, several experts agree that this pattern may have broken down, driven by long-term investment in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional adoption.

"The classic four-year cycle has lost some of its relevance," argues trader and financial analyst Emanuel Juarez.

In an interview with CriptoNoticias, the Argentine specialist points out that, while the cryptocurrency market remains cyclical, these cycles no longer occur as precisely as in the past.

According to the trader, the approval of Bitcoin ETFs two years ago and the growing institutional adoption have introduced new capital flows and dynamics that tend to smooth out and distort historical patterns, meaning that 2026 should not be analyzed solely as an automatically bearish year.

"The outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish"

From his perspective, Juarez believes that "the outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, although some caution is necessary in the short term." According to his technical analysis, the area between $97,200 and $98,800 acts as a significant psychological resistance level.

"If the price manages to consolidate above that level, the next natural target would be a search for liquidity above the high at $107,475, which would allow the daily chart to align with the short-term upward trend," he notes, as shown in the following chart.

On the fundamental level, he sees that the context also supports a constructive scenario for bitcoin: "Major stock market indices are at all-time highs, as are traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver, which reinforces a favorable environment for risk and inflation-hedge assets."

The importance of the macroeconomic context

In this scenario, "Bitcoin's rise may continue in the short term, but there's no guarantee it will remain unchanged without a correction," comments Carolina Gama, country manager of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, in an exclusive interview.

According to Gama, "its evolution will depend primarily on capital flows and the macroeconomic context, rather than historical patterns."

She believes the idea of ​​a fixed four-year cycle has lost relevance. First, because past performance is no guarantee of future performance. And second, because the growing institutional participation through ETFs, traditional managers, and large investors has transformed market dynamics.

"Today, Bitcoin behaves increasingly like a global financial asset, influenced by liquidity, interest rates, and risk appetite, making cycles less predictable and potentially less symmetrical than in the past," she argues.

In this sense, she sees the possibility of Bitcoin continuing its upward trend if liquidity and the macroeconomic context remain positive for the market. Otherwise, a bear market becomes plausible.

The lack of widespread demand maintains the uncertainty

In this context of uncertainty, some prefer to keep their bullish expectations on hold. This is the case with the analysis firm Glassnode.

"The market is positioning itself for a potential retest in the $100,000 area, while at the same time expressing doubts about sustained acceptance above that level in the long term," the firm points out. In this sense, in their view, the upside potential is being tactically focused in the short term, as a precaution against uncertainty in longer timeframes.

According to their analysis, the recent price increase "was due more to mechanical positioning dynamics than to widespread organic demand." They argue that futures liquidity remains scarce, and spot participation, although it has improved, has not yet shown the persistent accumulation that is typically observed during the full expansion of a trend.

Glassnode then warns that, with the easing of selling pressure, relatively modest inflows could trigger disproportionate price responses. However, it does not rule out the possibility that, if spot accumulation and ETF-led institutional demand continue to rebuild, "the current consolidation phase could provide the basis for renewed trend expansion."