Lately I’ve been noticing something.
Everywhere I look, people are expecting a bull run.
Not hoping. Expecting.
Like it’s already decided.

I scroll for a few minutes and it’s the same energy over and over again.
Confidence. Certainty.
Price targets thrown around like they’re facts.
It almost feels uncomfortable how aligned everyone is.

And maybe I’m wrong for feeling this way but when things start to feel obvious in markets, I slow down.

Right now I’m about 70% in cash.

That’s not a dramatic call.
I’m not predicting a crash.
I’m not saying the market can’t go higher from here.
It absolutely can.
I just don’t like how easy this feels.

I remember similar moments before.
In 2017, when Bitcoin was everywhere and even people who had never cared about investing suddenly had strong opinions.
In 2021 when every dip felt like a gift and the idea of a real pullback seemed outdated.
Both times, the optimism made sense while it was happening.
It didn’t feel crazy. It felt justified.

But markets have a way of humbling consensus.

What I’ve learned (sometimes the hard way) is that the crowd isn’t usually wrong about direction, they’re wrong about timing.
By the time something feels obvious, most of the easy move is already behind us.

So I’m choosing patience.
Cash gives me room to think.
It removes pressure.
If we get a proper shakeout, I’ll be ready.
f we just keep grinding higher, I can still enter later with more confirmation.
I’m okay paying a bit more for clarity.

I’ve realized I care less about catching the exact bottom and more about avoiding emotional decisions.
When everyone is excited, it’s easy to get pulled in.
When everyone sounds smart, it’s easy to assume you’re late if you’re not fully allocated.

Maybe we go straight up from here.
That wouldn’t shock me.
But I’d rather miss part of a move than chase something just because it feels socially validated.

I’m not trying to be contrarian for the sake of it.
I just don’t fully trust crowded trades anymore.

If I’m wrong, I’ll adapt.
If I’m right, I’ll have better entries.
Either way, I’ll be calm and right now that matters more to me than being aggressively positioned.

That’s where my head is at the moment!