Well, Bitcoin finally did it, guys! After facing rejection at $16k for a couple of days in a row BTC finally pushed its way through however only slightly. Given the rejection, it has faced the last few days it does not surprise me to see it only eek past the marker. What I write below is my own thoughts and expectations of bitcoin for the near future and please make sure you do your own research before basing your decisions on anything I say!

The big question is:  So bitcoin is over $16,000 what now?

There are a variety of answers to this and for the people who think it will continue this march uninterrupted, I have first listed why I do not see that being the case. Plenty of people and articles seem to keep thinking it will just keep on marching but that is a lot easier said than done. Below are my biggest questions when looking at this idea and trying to wrap my head around it. 

      Reasons it Wont

• A huge issue percentage of wallets holding bitcoin that are already in the green (they are profitable at the price now) the people that have bitcoin currently are not as inclined to continue to buy it if they are only raising their overall cost per coin.
• People have mentioned institutions, companies, and the wealthy in general starting to buy into it and we have seen that is the case with companies like Paypal but even with this idea we have issues. The institutions, companies, and the wealthy in general got wealthy for a reason and have maintained their wealth for a reason. It is safe to assume that they are pretty smart people and it is highly unlikely they will chase up the price of an asset. It is much more likely that they will now wait for the price to retreat before entering. 
• Bitcoin did not have a massive jump once it passed $16k like one would have wanted if the price was going to continue to relentlessly climb it crept over and even then just barely.

      Reasons it Will

• Economic instability... I could go into depth about this but it is really not hard to figure this one out.
• Political and social instability
  • I live in the US and the nation is pretty divided over this election still. It is crazy to see the media spin an easy Biden win when the election for one has not been certified and we also have recounts going on..... out of a nation of 300+ million and with almost 200 million votes cast a few thousand votes in a few different places are what has so far be a "decided" election.
  • Worldwide wide there are issues popping up and in areas, I did not expect to see. We have Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict, Mozambique, and now even Ethiopia having internal and external conflicts. 
• The world currently is being flooded with cash and people have easy access to much lower interest loans. With the Federal Reserve continuing to keep pumping out money the US and other parts of the world are experiencing "cheap money"

Now there are a ton of other reasons I could list for either side however these were the best three of each in my opinion. With all of the unknowns in the world right now it is really a toss up on how you feel the next few months are going to look like.

My Verdict

• Given all of the things I have read, researched, and discussed with people I personally think we could see bitcoin fall back down to $14,750 before it hits even $18,000 much less $20,000. I do however see this fall happening rather soon allowing for bitcoin to rally up to $18,000 before the end of the year. I am not sold on it hitting $20,000 yet and the biggest reason for this is the stock market is doing way too good right now and the idea of a COVID vaccine really hampers the idea of putting money in a safe haven like bitcoin. 

If bitcoin were to give back its gains and fall below the $15,000 mark then and only then would I be looking at buying more. It is just too hard to buy it at this price or even in the $15,000 range. Longterm the sky is the limit with bitcoin due to its scarcity value caused by it only having a set limit amount. One day I could see it reaching the point of having a $50,000 value but this is going to not only take time but require the value of the coin to also pull back. 

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