This article was published on Jan 31st
The chart above shows a key-word ased data analysis of positive and negative sentiment, with the price action of Aptos in blue. We can see that a few days prior to Aptos’ listing on Binance, there were already a lot of people online talking about Aptos, hence the pump that followed right after the listing event.
Interestingly enough, despite the figures for positive sentiment being higher, the price only continued to drop. Negative sentiment started taking over, surpassing positive sentiment on Dec. 24 of 2022, and interestingly enough, that is when Aptos started to take off. Even as Aptos made a 550%+ move up to its local highs, we can see that the sentiment is more negative than positive.
The recent surge in Aptos’ price is due to the active construction of its ecosystem. According to data provided by NodeReal’s TraceMove, the top Aptos NFTs in terms of market capitalization have risen several times over. This indicates that with Aptos’ NFT-related activities increasing, trading volume is also rising as collectors try to enter the market.
There is also another argument that investors have gathered with the intention of making profits through “Kimchi Premium”. Half of Aptos’ trading volume in the past few days originated from Upbit, a Korean exchange. This is because Aptos’ price in Upbit is higher than that of other global exchanges, and investors are gathering to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity.
There are also reasons behind the negative sentiment, backing up bears’ perspectives. Currently, there is a significant amount of APT that is locked, but the overall supply will keep increasing every year through the PoS validation process’s staking reward system. On the surface, it appears that more than 51% of the token supply will be given to the community.
Upon closer examination of the token economics, it seems that all of the tokens designated for the community are actually controlled by the Aptos Foundation and its team. They will be distributed to community members as grants when certain key milestones are reached.
Individuals who received pre-launch allocations, such as investors and core contributors, are subject to a four-year lock-up period. The release of these tokens will gradually increase in late 2023, and the team predicts that the total supply of APT will exceed 1.5 billion by 2032.
