Thank you for stopping by and checking out this series detailing coins and tokens with market caps below one billion dollars $US that have the potential to be a valuable part of your portfolio. We'll be examining their history, their role in the greater crypto ecosphere, and if they're poised for major growth that's worth your time and money.
Today we're going to take a look at a governance token that has only been out for a week but is already making some folks a nice chunk of money: Forth
Supply (Circulating/Total): 8,159,987 / 15,000,000
Primary Exchanges: Coinbase, Binance
FORTH, also known as the Ampleforth Governance Token, is as the name implies. It provides the means for the Ampleforth protocol to function as a fully decentralized financial building block by giving holders a say over how the protocol adapts to the market to achieve it's goals. Some work is still being done in regards to the process of submitting and finally voting on possible protocol changes, but you can check out the planned suggestion and voting process here. There have already been a few discussions regarding protocol updates, which you can follow on Ampleforth's Github page.
What is FORTH Worth?
At this moment the only major benefit to holding FORTH is to have a say in how the Ampleforth protocol may change in the future, though it's possible other rewards may come about in the future. Of the 15 million FORTH tokens that were created at genesis, 67% (minus 2.5% that is being carved out for a community education fund) will be going to those who had held AMPL on-chain while participating in Ampleforth's geyser program and/or holding their AMPL through negative rebases. The more time you were involved in these actions, the more points you would earn and the more FORTH that would be earned. Around 40% of these tokens have yet to be claimed (you can view the account paying out the token claims on Etherscan), with the current number of wallets holding FORTH at ~25,000.
Ampleforth has stated that over 75K holders of AMPL qualified for FORTH tokens, but with the large range when it comes to reward amounts its very hard to determine how many have yet to claim their FORTH. The number of current holders of the token has grown at a fairly tame rate after the initial rush of claimants so it's reasonable to assume that a significant number of those who have earned FORTH are selling off their stakes for the quick and likely unexpected cash infusion.
Even with this heavy selling FORTH's price seems to have stabilized within the $40 range the past couple of days, up from the low $30s. This tells me that we have significant interest in acquiring this token for at least the mid-term as Ampleforth's governance community matures. I'm expecting FORTH's price to swing between $35 and $45 as we slide into May as more of the token enters the open market. Hopefully by mid-May we start getting more data as to how much of the supply is being held whale or investor sized wallets (those that own more than 1% or between 0.1% and 1% respectfully) which could give us an idea of FORTH's future price stability. For comparison, 80% of AMPL's current circulating supply is held by these two classes.
At the moment, there are currently a touch under 27 AMPL in existence for every FORTH, and if we took the current as of this writing oracle price of $1.098 that would mean a total of ~$29.57 worth of AMPL for each FORTH. Considering the hype this new token has from it's recent release I see the $10-$15 premium it's currently running with as reasonable. It's not a sure thing that we'll see a firm correlation between FORTH's price vs. its controlling value of AMPL but I'm feeling somewhat secure that this comparison will provide a strong support line to the valuation of FORTH. This is conditional that AMPL is able to maintain a healthy growth in its' supply and avoid another long period of negative rebases like we saw in February.
FORTH is scheduled to go through an inflation period of 2% every year, though how these tokens will be distributed is still up in the air. I don't see that as being a heavy drag on the token's price, however, as AMPL is already designed to rise with inflation off its initial price target and unless we enter a serious inflation/deflation period the balance between the two should remain fairly even.
I'm curious to hear your thoughts on FORTH's debut and where you think it might be heading. Let me know in the comments below if you believe it will maintain a correlation with AMPL or could it take off once the initial claims have all gone through. I'll be going back over FORTH once we hit the 30 day mark in its trading, which will hopefully provide a better insight as to where it may be heading.
Thank you for reading, and if you haven't already claimed your FORTH be sure to head here to do so. While ETH fees are still high, if you have a large enough claim waiting it will be well worth the cost.
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