Ampleforth has been on a roll during the first part of February after spending the last week of January within the target zone. AMPL rocketed up past $1.66 over the course of last week before settling back down in the $1.30-$1.40 range the past few days. This still puts Ampleforth well over the current target price of $1.024 and with an estimated supply rebase of around +3% will be pushing past 500 million total supply for the first time since August of last year.

Something to keep in mind is that AMPL is very whale and investor heavy. About 80% of the circulating supply is held by those holding more than 0.1% (currently over 400K AMPL), so a move by any one of them could significantly affect the price on a given exchange. We can actually see this when looking at Ampleforth's price chart and comparing the day to day price spikes.

We can see during the end of 2020 and the beginning of this year AMPL tended to make very sharp moves over the course of a few days, leading to a very jagged profile. What's interesting to me is that the last week has produced the closest we've had to a plateau for pretty much the entire active trading history of AMPL. My theory here is that the larger holders have learned a lesson in terms of selling too quickly and are taking advantage of being over the expansion threshold to generate large amounts of AMPL before selling off for a profit. Volume has dropped by about half since the price spike, and I expect a slow drop towards the expansion threshold line as the larger holders look to squeeze every coin out of the rebase system they can before selling. 

There is a question if we'll see another dive below the contraction threshold once this run is complete, but I'm not so sure that will happen this time around. With the current expansion elevating holder's supplies significantly more than they contracted during the last downturn, I can see the major players sticking to trading prices around Ampleforth's price target where they can still make a nice profit on their newly minted AMPL.

Considering ETH's insane gas fees and the current bull run I've decided to maintain my smaller Ampleforth stake at the moment and see how far this goes. Even if we dip back down to the price target I'll have still made money with all the new AMPL I'll be holding and in a position for more if the prices rises again or I can find a market that will be economical to provide liquidity in. So far the most popular are USDT, ETH, and BTC but any active coin could be paired with AMPL as a form of hedge option for those coins big moves.