Amid the growing fascination with holding Bitcoin (BTC) reserves by various countries, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket has registered a bet on the possibility of a new country acquiring funds based on the digital currency to include in its National Treasury during the year 2025. To date, the results indicate that there is an 82% chance of this happening.
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction marketplace where people can place bets with tokens on the outcome of future events. And among its recent bets is the question: “Will a new country buy bitcoin in 2025?” This opened a new market that has already seen more than $34,600 bet, with a majority saying that a new country will indeed buy bitcoin, following in the footsteps of El Salvador , which added BTC to its treasury in 2021 and currently holds more than 6,000 coins as part of its reserves.
This market will be settled affirmatively if any government of a sovereign United Nations (UN) member state announces between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM that it has acquired Bitcoin for the first time, as specified in the prediction platform's event resolution.
It adds that “in determining the outcome, Polymarket will rely primarily on official announcements from the governments of UN member states making these purchases.” However, in case of ambiguity, a consensus of credible reports will also be taken into account to ensure the accuracy of the resolution.
In that sense, the bet on Polymarket suggests that the community revolving around bitcoin and other digital assets anticipates that more countries will follow the example given by El Salvador, driven by the search for reserve diversification, financial innovation or even as a measure to strengthen their monetary sovereignty.
Polymarket users predict 82% chance of a new country buying Bitcoin. Source: Polymarket.
United States and 3 other countries among the candidates
This prediction from the cryptocurrency community is in line with one published by Samson Mow on the social network X. The entrepreneur and Bitcoiner believes that in 2025 the United States will create its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve , as promised by Donald Trump. And then, three other countries will follow in its footsteps, “one of them in Asia,” as he points out.
Lozano, who had anticipated in a previous interview that two countries would follow in El Salvador's footsteps in adopting bitcoin, finally shared some of the countries with which talks have been taking place.
He mentioned that Portugal and the autonomous region of Madeira are in active talks. "Madeira is very interested, they want to do several pilot projects, as should have been done in El Salvador, a pilot project with a small city," said Lozano. He also indicated that there is interest on the part of Bolivia, although he did not go into detail.
The prominent figure in the Bitcoin industry in Latin America, who in 2021 led the team of programmers in charge of developing the Chivo Wallet government application to promote the adoption of the digital currency in El Salvador, also mentioned that discussions are underway with several Central American countries. However, due to confidentiality reasons, he could not reveal their identities.
Additionally, Lozano revealed that his team is working on developing its own applications, designed to be implemented in any country.
"I think my goal in the next country or city is to do proof of concept tests, to do a deeper analysis of what people think, because at the end of the day, it's the people who are going to use this, not just the government."
Arley Lozano, a leading figure in the Bitcoin industry in Latin America.
This revelation from Lozano shows a promising outlook for global adoption of the pioneering digital currency, with more countries and regions exploring its integration into their economies, driven not only by government interest, but also by popular demand and acceptance.
