Standard Chartered, the UK-based bank, has released new projections for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) through 2025. For Geoffrey Kendrick, the firm's head of digital asset research, Bitcoin is preparing for a move that will propel it to $135,000 in the short term. He stated this in a report sent to investors.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading above $121,000, as seen in the following chart provided by TradingView:
BTC price over the past 12 months. Source: TradingView.
Kendrick noted that the US government shutdown is one reason BTC could rise to those levels in the short term. The federal government shutdown occurs when the U.S. Congress fails to approve funding on time, halting non-essential activities and leaving thousands of public employees at home.
This year, it was fueled by disagreements between Democrats and Republicans over healthcare subsidies and spending levels, although key services like Medicare, defense, and the military remain active. This fact generates uncertainty among investors, who seek refuge in assets such as gold, Treasury bonds or BTC.
On this subject, Kendrick states: "The shutdown is important this time. During the previous Trump shutdown (December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019), BTC was in a different situation than it is now, so it had little impact. However, this year, BTC has traded with 'US government risks' in mind, as evidenced by its relationship with the Treasury bond forward premium."
The chart below, which shows the relationship between BTC (green line) and the US Treasury bond forward premium (blue line), supports Kendrick's claim.
BTC price and US Treasury bond yield.
In general, it is observed that when the 10-year term premium rises, BTC tends to rise, and when it falls, the BTC price also tends to adjust downwards, showing some correlation.
When the forward premium rises, it reflects greater uncertainty or risk in traditional markets, such as Treasury bonds. In this context, BTC may rise because many investors view it as an alternative asset to face political or financial risks. Another price catalyst is the inflow of institutional capital through BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The expert says that while gold ETFs have recently outperformed BTC ETFs, flows into financial instruments based on the digital asset are poised to recover. Since its market launch in January 2024, BTC-based funds have raised $60 billion, of which $23 billion came in 2025.
Inflows and outflows of money into Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SosoValue.
This week alone, they raised more than $2.25 billion. Standard Chartered projects they will attract another $20 billion by the end of 2025. If this happens, British bank specialists do not rule out the possibility BTC could reach $200,000.
