The approval of bitcoin ETFs in the United States on January 10, 2024, almost a month ago, marked a historic milestone in the digital asset industry.
Although the event was received with great expectations, the subsequent reactions and developments have left several valuable lessons for investors, enthusiasts and market observers. Here I explore five key lessons that emerge from this event.
1. The Institutional Investor is Not Moved by FOMO
The approval of bitcoin ETFs did not spark a buying frenzy driven by fear of missing out among institutional investors. While ETFs have seen sustained growth, and the price of BTC has increased since their approval, we have not seen the "super bull run " anticipated by many analysts.
This behavior underscores a fundamental truth about institutional investors: their approach is more measured and based on deep analysis, rather than impulsive moves . This caution reflects a maturity in the cryptocurrency market, where strategy trumps momentary enthusiasm.
2. You Have to be Careful With "Predictions"
Commenting is free and free. Anyone can create an account on X or open a YouTube channel and say what price bitcoin will go to tomorrow. But that doesn't mean that prediction is true. In fact, considering the impossibility—at least, for now—of time travel, any prediction is more likely to be wrong than right. An opinion should be taken as just that: an opinion. Without giving it more value than what an opinion may have.
The post-ETF reality reminds us of the importance of approaching market predictions with healthy skepticism . Before the approval, speculation was rife about the immediate and massive impact on the price of bitcoin. However, the reality, has been more complex and less dramatic. This scenario reinforces the need to carry out independent investigations and not be carried away by sensationalism .
3. Organic Growth is Perceived to Skyrocket After the Halving
Although the instant impact of ETFs has not been as explosive as some anticipated, there are signs of sustained organic growth in bitcoin adoption and investment. This growth could accelerate after the next bitcoin halving, scheduled for April or May 2024 .
Historically, halvings have had a significant impact on the price of BTC, because less of the digital currency is issued and the market is reminded that it is a scarce asset.
This event could, once again, be the catalyst that leads to a higher valuation, driven by both increased scarcity and renewed interest in bitcoin.
The analyst known as Rekt Capital has pointed out the phases that are usually seen for the price of bitcoin before the halving. Only in the last stage (which occurs a few months after each halving) does the strong demand cause the bitcoin price to experience accelerated growth. It is at this time that it has always reached new all-time high prices.
4. Bitcoin Perseveres and Triumphs Over Governments
The SEC's approval of bitcoin ETFs symbolizes a significant victory for bitcoin over regulators who, for years, were skeptical or outright hostile toward these financial products (and anything involving bitcoin or cryptocurrencies).
This achievement not only validates bitcoin as a legitimate financial asset in the eyes of one of the world's most influential financial institutions, but also demonstrates the resilience and adaptability of BTC and its community.
Over the years, bitcoin has faced numerous regulatory challenges and emerged stronger, reaffirming its position as a disruptive financial innovation. However, one can debate how that effects the decentralization philosophy.
5. With or Without ETF, Bitcoin is Still Bitcoin
Bitcoin's immutable essence, even in the face of the advent of ETFs, reflects one of the fundamental truths about Satoshi Nakamoto 's creation : its intrinsic value and innovation do not derive from institutional acceptance or integration into the traditional financial system, but of its unique characteristics and the philosophy that supports it.
Even if spot ETFs in the United States had not been approved, Bitcoin would still be a decentralized, secure, peer-to-peer electronic cash system without the need for intermediaries.
This chapter in Bitcoin's history is not just a regulatory milestone or a new financial product; It is a moment of reflection on how disruptive innovations can challenge, and eventually integrate, into established systems, transforming them from within.
So, as we celebrate the arrival of bitcoin ETFs on the world's largest stock market, we must also remember that the true essence of Bitcoin remains unchanged, challenging preconceived notions about what money means every day.