The year 2023 has seen multiple erroneous predictions for the price of bitcoin (BTC), defying the expectations of analysts and economists.
It should be remembered that 2022 was marked by negative events such as the collapse of FTX and the Terra/Luna cryptocurrencies, which affected bitcoin and caused it to start this year in the red. That may have predisposed many to think that 2023 would also be a bear year.
Bitcoin in January was around $16,000 but, as the months went by, it gained ground, especially from last October to today, as a result of the fever sparked by spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These financial instruments were protagonists of the digital assets scene in 2023 and will surely be the same next year.
That is why the main digital currency had an increase of close to 150% so far this year. Only in the last quarter it had a growth of 52%. Several prominent voices gave diverse forecasts for the main digital currency, ranging from a catastrophic scenario to extreme optimism in 2023.
1. Death of Bitcoin
One of the most catastrophic predictions for bitcoin in 2023 was made by economist Paul Krugman, who announced the death of the digital currency, something that evidently did not come true (at least until now, with one week left in the year).
At the beginning of 2023, the economist indicated that the bitcoin ecosystem, including all cryptocurrencies, was near its end.
Krugman also referred to the Bitcoin network, which he classified as useless. In his opinion, as a result of the drama generated by FTX, many institutions began to abandon their projects after believing that it would help them solve their problems.
2. Bitcoin at $5,000
Another of the negative scenarios for bitcoin that did not come true was the one predicted by the multinational bank of British origin, Standard Chartered.
The bank's global head of research, Eric Robertsen, raised the possibility that bitcoin would reach a price of $5,000 and there would be an increase in gold, since investment in cryptocurrencies would decrease. Robertsen attributed this, at the time, to the nervousness aroused by the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange.
The position of the British bank coincided with comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) in which it assured that bitcoin was in its last moments, before this crypto asset “continued the path towards irrelevance.”
3. BTC at 50K
Unlike the other negative forecasts, Cheds (author of the book "Trading Wisdom: 50 Lessons Every Trader Should Know"), estimated that the price would reach $50,000 in 2023 .
He suggested that this moment was the opportunity to make profits, especially if fluctuations or weaknesses in the market were taken advantage of to accumulate more bitcoin before it reached the price he considered.
Cheds wasn't that far away. Today, bitcoin is trading at just over $43,500. Will it reach $50,000 in the next 4 days?
For his part, analyst Michael van de Poppe also pointed to bitcoin with a price of $50,000 by the middle of this year, something that was not fulfilled , since at that time BTC had a price of $26,000.
4. Tim Draper's Extreme Optimism
From a conservative prediction like those of Cheds and Michael van de Poppe, we go to the extreme of optimism for the price of bitcoin, according to investor and venture capitalist Tim Draper.
He said late last year that BTC would reach $250,000 by early 2023 . However, due to the turbulence caused by the FTX crisis, he postponed that prediction, since he considered that it would reach that price in the middle of this year.
“I expect a flight towards decentralized, quality currencies like bitcoin, and that some of the weaker currencies become relics,” he told the CNBC.
At the time, Draper, who has been one of the pioneers of investing in bitcoin since 2014, indicated that retail investors would boost the price of bitcoin . “Retailers will save approximately 2% on every purchase made in bitcoins versus dollars. “Once retailers realize that 2% can double their profits, bitcoin will be ubiquitous.”
Analysis of wrong predictions for bitcoin in 2023 highlights the inherent volatility and unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market. Although expectations were not met as predicted, either because they were bearish or quite optimistic, bitcoin's resilience persists, and some signs suggest a possible upward trend for the year 2024, as a result of ETFs, the halving and the growth of the Ordinals.
