On the daily chart, the situation is unchanged.
We want to look at the daily chart occasionally in order to better understand the longterm trend.
We are currently in a bullish structure, which may change with a break below $27,350, the 78.6 retrace of the rally starting on September 11.
The market completed five waves up into the April highs, followed by a three-wave pullback and another five-wave move up, forming a one-two-one structure.
This forecast holds as long as the price stays above $27,350. Breaking above $43k could indicate an overheated market, resembling a corrective ABC structure, reducing probabilities for a positive outcome.
In the next few weeks, attention is needed at the $43k level.
If the price corrects, it could set up a wave 2 and a rally into 2024.
On the shorter timeframe, the rally from September 11 might be finishing, with potential for a little higher.
Bitcoin has been moving above the trend line since late October, with different interpretations of the wave count.
The up-trending scenario is valid as long as the price holds above the B wave low at $35,680, with reduced probabilities below $36,216.
Confirmation of a low requires a break above $37,840, allowing the third wave to target $40k plus.