For a moment, I put aside the mumbo-jumbo of technical analysis, and took some data on the price of Bitcoin. Not much data. Only one characteristic number per year. The mean price. Then I tried to condense this data to the simple conclusion possible. I wanted something short and educational. One formula to tell the whole story at once.
So my data taken is mean year prices for Bitcoin:
2010 p = $0.00 (Bitcoin virtually have no price in year 2010,
till first pizza for 10.000 BTC was purchased)
2011 p = $0,30
2012 p = $3,40
2013 p = $26,50
2014 p = €208
2015 p = $485
2016 p = $823
2017 p = $1.919
2018 p = $4.021
2019 p = $9.300
2020 p = $17.600
2021 p = €37.000
I took for a template a function:
f(x) = x^n / (a * x)
Where x represents years starting from 2010 and n and a are a parameters to be determined to fit this function with my data of prices. With some empirical mathematics that determined the parameters n and a, I came up with a simple formula. n and a can slightly differ upon to the approximation process but I came up with two numbers that are looking nice to me.
Sometimes hand drawn graphs are looking cool!
where x is an integer number between zero (for year 2010) and infinity (the distant future). This empirical approximation formula shows that Bitcoin price in dollars is an exponential function and, oh boy, this functions grow fast, very fast.
Our function spits out $2.999.127 for x=20 (year 2030). This shows that fiat dollar will be worth 33 Satoshies. Or in the other words, it will bite the dust in less than ten years in the future.
I leave you for now with this simple facts and maybe recommend you some further reading about exponential processes.
