Bitcoin at $288,000 in 2024? The creator of Ethereum doesn't believe it.

By Bichoco | BiChoco | 16 Jun 2020

Vitalik Buterin has just showered the predictions of the famous S2F model. It is inconceivable to him that Bitcoin could follow a linear trajectory, reaching $288,000 in 2024.

Designed by the anonymous "Plan B" in March 2019, the Stock to Flow (S2F) model uses valuation methods for raw materials such as gold or silver to evaluate Bitcoin . Its value would therefore be a function based on its rarity. With this method, we are propelled to 2024 with a price of $288,000 for Bitcoin.

According to the creator of Ethereum in a widely reported tweet, the theory that halving would lead to an increase in the price of Bitcoin has a problem: it is not falsifiable.

"Peak occurred before the halving? So the price 'appreciated in anticipation of the halving'.

During? It's because of the Halving.

After? Because of...

The last peak at $20,000 occurred midway between the 2016 halving and 2020″.

The creator of the S2F model was quick to respond to the accusations, claiming that Bitcoin's historical performance was caused by the greed of speculators and their fear of missing an exceptional opportunity. Therefore, it is much more sensible to consider average prices.

"I tend to think differently. Halving makes Bitcoin rarer (in the terms of the S2F model) and rare assets (Gold, Bitcoin, Silver) seem to be more valuable than others".

The battle of ideals is engaged between two heavyweights of the ecosystem.

However, the S2F model has been emulated within the Bitcoin-related scientific community. Saifedean Ammous, an economist from the Austrian school and creator of the now cult "The Bitcoin Standard", believes that the S2F has challenged his entire career and beliefs.

Indeed, much more than a simple model, S2F would be one of the few works that can accurately predict the human behavior and future appreciation of an asset like Bitcoin, according to Saifedean.


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