Bitcoin price correlation with Bitcoin Halving events

By Behiver | behiver | 10 Apr 2024

Bitcoin Halving increases the difficulty of mining Bitcoin and as a result of that in theory less Bitcoin will get mined. If we extrapolate from here that would mean that as less Bitcoin will enter the market, its price should go up. Whether that is true or not can be observed by looking at the past events of Bitcoin Halving and the results out of it. The price movement will not be observed very fast, thus taking a 6 months post Bitcoin Halving for analysis is a good way of really figuring that out. So let's see how that went in previous events.

First Halving

The first Bitcoin Halving took place on November 28, 2012. On the day of the halving, the price of Bitcoin was approximately $12. Believe or not I was there at that point, but simply didn't understood the phenomenon that was unveiling under my eyes and didn't know what to do. Six months later, around May 28, 2013, the price had risen significantly to about $130, showcasing a substantial increase.

Second Halving

The second Bitcoin Halving took place on July 9, 2016. The price of Bitcoin was around $660 on the day of the halving. Around January 9, 2017, the price increased to about $900, indicating a considerable growth in value over six months. I came back to crypto in 2017 when the peak of the market was still producing waves and enthusiasm in the crypto space and since than I was truly hooked up.

Third Halving

The third Bitcoin Halving took place on May 11, 2020. Bitcoin's price was approximately $8,600 on the day of the halving and it rose to over $15,700 six months later, around November 11, 2020. That year not only Bitcoin proved itself, but several other ALT crypto projects I was invested it. And guess what? I didn't took profit by following the historical cycle and probably that's my biggest regret until now.

Fourth Halving

The fourth Bitcoin Halving is expected to occur on April 16,2024. This translated to around 34 days until the event. While Bitcoin already surpassed previous All Time Highs pushing the price up to $73,737.94, probably the best is yet to come. Not only that ETFs were already approved and eating liquidity, but crypto adoption reached unseen levels. Surpassing $100,000 after this Bitcoin Halving in a 6 months period after it, is no brainer for me.

The positive sentiment surrounding Bitcoin Halving has historically been associated with price fluctuations, as some investors anticipate post-halving rally. If we'll look at history, the mining reward started at 50 BTC per block when Bitcoin was released in 2009. Since then, there have been three halvings. The first Bitcoin halving occurred in November 2012, reducing the mining reward from 50 to 25 BTC. The second halving in July 2016 cut it further to 12.5 BTC. In the third halving in May 2020, the reward was again halved to 6.25 BTC per block. These halvings are integral to Bitcoin's scarcity and inflation control, ensuring that the total supply will never exceed 21 million, aligning with its deflationary principles.