My Succinct Analysis of Bitcoin and Future Projections (1 year, 5 years, 10+ years)

I have already written several pieces discussing Bitcoin, how it works, and its potential in our modern world. Today, I would like to slightly expand on my previous analysis and give my expectations for Bitcoin in several different time frames.

Here are several things I assume are a given (which others may disagree with):

Bitcoin has proven itself as the first widely adopted and highly functioning, decentralized online currency with a high degree of security. This first-mover advantage combined with practical functionality automatically gives Bitcoin upward steam.

It lacks in its ability to do what other cryptocurrencies, like Ethereum, can do. However, this does not matter. Bitcoin set out to be digital gold, and it accomplished exactly this. Anyone can anonymously use it for whatever they want, if they use a private wallet, which everyone should. It primarily does one thing, imitate physical gold, and it does it well.

As more and more global households gain internet, higher earnings, and awareness to Bitcoin, as are the current trends, the price will accordingly grow.

The highest-probability problems I see that could arise due to Bitcoin’s actual structure relate with its finite supply. Though not to be overlooked, this is set to occur over a century from now, so I am giving it a lower weight in my analysis.

The latest mass bank adoption of Bitcoin is only a precursor to the global adoption of many, varied cryptocurrencies, of which Bitcoin will greatly benefit.

Any thorough projection should consider relevant modern world factors-COVID. Some governments reacted very well and mitigated the financial and human effects of COVID-19. Overall, world governments failed at both saving lives and mitigating financial losses. The United States may have failed the worst at both. This is relevant because the worst financial ramifications from COVID have been artificially delayed, in my opinion, and the Fed already spent many of its resources in the early stages of the fight. This is relevant to Bitcoin because when the leading spenders and everyone else on the planet suffer financially, the demand for everything goes down, including Bitcoin.

BTC Price 08.01.2021:             $41,200.00

1 Year:

Conservative Estimate:           $36,832.37

Optimistic Estimate:               $47,242.09

5 Year:

Conservative Estimate:           $53,022.58

Optimistic Estimate                $105,544.30

10 Year:

Conservative Estimate:           $68,237.56

Optimistic Estimate:               $270,377.80

These are all extremely subjective and rough numbers I worked up on excel. However, unless there is some global crypto-black swan event, I believe they should be fairly accurate.

Disclaimer: I am by no means a cryptocurrency professional. I am a BS in Finance and approach my analyses through an economic and financial point of view. I do my best to integrate all current relevant information into analysis.