Hello everyone!
In my previous article, "British Jobs Data & Bitcoin: A Hidden Pump or a Calculated Trap?", I analyzed the theory that rising unemployment usually leads to a crypto pump. But as a trader, I believe we must always check our theories against the actual charts.
According to my previous analysis, the UK unemployment rate is set to be released on February 17th. But let’s look at what happened last time. On January 20, 2026, this same data was released, and as you can see in the image below, the rate was higher than expected
Isn’t it interesting? According to the theory, this "bad" economic news should have triggered a Bitcoin pump. However, if you look at the Bitcoin chart at that exact time, the price actually dropped instead of increasing.
Why did this happen? There are two main reasons for this movement:
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Market Sentiment & Fear: Sometimes "bad news" for the economy doesn't mean a pump; it creates fear. Investors might see rising unemployment as a sign of a deeper recession, leading them to sell risky assets like Bitcoin and move to cash.
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The Currency Ripple Effect: When the UK unemployment data is poor, the British Pound (GBP) loses value. As the Pound drops, the US Dollar (DXY) often gains strength. Since Bitcoin has an inverse relationship with the Dollar, a stronger DXY leads to a Bitcoin drop.
This proves that the market is a complex web. For the upcoming February 17th news, we must keep an eye on the Dollar index as much as the unemployment numbers!
