Bitcoin Observations
This is NOT investment advice.
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Bitcoin Weekly
Note the Blue cooling off a bit of the Green on the Weekly Money Flow. Note hedges below adjusted.
Bitcoin Daily
Glassnode looks at Standard Deviations from the Short-Term Holder cost basis to project 'topping' as they call it. Interesting, I am currently working with an 118K-124K zone (if we make it there) as an area where turbulence could for sure resurface.
Let's not forget that although yes many HODL and a ton of coins will never get sold, there is robust trading activity "on the surface" if you will and players are selling as well as buying. It's not just buy and hold all the time for the bulk of the trading volume:
Bitcoin Bottom Line
- Let the market tell/show us what is next
- 107.2Kish/109.6Kish playing a role for sure on lower Time Frames
- So far, although the Weekly MF is showing some signs of subsiding, Bitcoin is still bouncing off lower Time Frame levels and maintaining the momentum on the weekly . . . . . so far
- It's been a fairly quiet week for bond VOL, but rates are not plunging nor have any of the problems gone away (gotten worse or cans kicked)
- Meanwhile, at least according to Mr. Wong, there are times when you can only get a partial glimpse of the Moon
Risk On/Off
Still in this tussle seemingly:
Everyone, apparently, still hates the 'ole USD right now:
And over in Japan, despite the most recent jawboning from BOJ and reshuffling of the YCC chairs on the sinking ship . . . . . . . 10Y yields drifting back up:
Despite more sound and fury and even more tariff gyrations to include a new legal threat emerging, note inside the Red Circle how yields are still generally drifting higher since we called out the 2YR leaving JPow at the altar a week before the last Fed Meeting:
And let's check in with TiNA . . . . . . we are not arguing and fighting right now nor are we currently together:
Bottom line for me with regards to Risk On/Off is not all that much change from the weekend report. To me it still looks like equities are within that 5900-6000 range on the Spoos and it doesn't exactly appear at the moment that Spoos is leaning more to the upside at the moment. Note hedging below.
I'm still observing and waiting aside from hedges. Also - the market wants to 'talk' and 'hope' that rates don't go higher, but even with more intervention from Japan they are still drifting higher. Market already heard from NVDA as well, so if there was a little NVDA explosion higher we would have already seen it.
Fungible Global Bitcoin Conference - All Talking Same Language
Spending time at The Bitcoin Conference this week many things caught my attention. One of the bigger things was how easy it was to engage in business with individuals and entities from various parts of the world. The language of money . . . . . . . . all of us talking the same language of Bitcoin and the Lightning Network. Anything related to operating in different jurisdictions was not the focus since we are on the same page with BTC and Lightning. Got me thinking more about how the Lightning Network can facilitate massive global growth over time.
Ross Ulbricht Freedom Auctions and Art
Very cool display. Pretty intense seeing his stuff and all that time he spent there and the relation to BTC.
Lightning Labs Founder on Lightning
In an energetic and illuminating session Brian Murray and Elizabeth Stark talked about the Lightning Network and Stablecoins. Stark: "Lightning is becoming this global FX network".
Bitcoin Conference 2025
Mining Update
Still holding long USD hedges. Still holding short Nikkei. UVIX added back. We still have an 'elevated' BTC and 'depressed and compressed' VOL structure with the Spoos sitting on 5900. Can hedge BTC exposure via mining with some VOL protection along with USD. Adding more machines cash purchase.
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Matthew Wong
Meanwhile
