This Is NOT Investment Advice
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
My interpretation could be way, way off. Lots of confusion out there not just from the Fed itself either.
Powell/Fed
- tariffs not an issue, shrugged off criticism and does NOT say tariffs would hurt growth, inflation short lived, tariff = no growth is prevailing wisdom so market likes this (bullish)
- big draw down on QT signals lifelines are there no rug pull coming (dove)
- lot of dissent on cuts, tells me Fed in no hurry to try and juice risk assets or bail them out (hawk)
- emphasized QT taper was not monetary, meaning focused on bond market integrity looming Treasury challenges and not juicing stocks and Bitcoin (hawk)
My take as it pertains to BTC:
- Powell isn't per se anti-BTC, hell he may be very much in favor for all we know. Looking at being careful about too much stimulus floating around to include being conscious of global stimulus/liquidity. Would rather avoid scenario where Gold $15K and BTC $1M in like 90 days if too much dovish love showered on markets.
- Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary both shrugging off concerns about tariffs. Whether one agrees or not the investment community might use this as a reason to leap past the "what about growth" concern and view this favorably, only people left complaining about tariffs would be the portion of the population that hates Trump and will hate anything Trump proposes.
- QT big relative drop down $25B to $5B fairly potent signal Fed well aware of all the dynamics and no intent to "pull the plug", monitoring reserves, etc.
- Emphasized that the QT thing is not monetary policy, extra emphasis not going to "come in and save risk" with rate cuts as easily as in the past perhaps
This brings me back to an article published here previously shown below:
Groundwork Being Laid For Banks Guzzling Treasuries
Now let's take a look at something just published by the Fed (March 4, 2025):
Evidence That Relaxing Dealers' Risk Constraints Can Make the Treasury Market More Liquid
Well, what do you know. The Fed tasked it's staff with proving that forcing the banks to guzzle a tsunami of UST will help overall Treasury market liquidity. Now why would they do this? When in a jam, just change the rules . . . . . . . . . . very common for government blobs.
Fed wants to ensure the battlefield is properly prepared for future asset purchases, but it continues to kick the can on rate cuts. For some extra love though it told you QT will wind down and that tariffs will not hamper growth or increase inflation (in and of themselves) over the intermediate and long term.
QQQ
Bitcoin Daily
Seems like risk wants to rally . . . . . . but is struggling to get enough soldiers lined up and pushing in the same direction.
Download sMiles - Promote Your Business or Yourself $10 Min Spend
Download sMiles and enter Bitcoinverse. Collect real Bitcoin Rewards on the map. Promote your business or yourself to rapidly growing large group of Bitcoin earning users.
Earn Free Bitcoin Playing Games
Get Free Bitcoin Automatically
