Bitcoin Observations
This is NOT investment advice.
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Bitcoin Range
Personally - I'm not seeing as much of a threat now for a meltdown scenario (though it is always possible), and I've never been a fan of labels like Bull or Bear along with strict guidelines such as +-20%. In other words - I don't personally see why "we have to drop 80%" because "the cycles say so" and "that's what a Bitcoin bear market does". I see it much more fluidly, and MUCH more impacted by current macro (sorry, it is what it is).
Why? Powell winding down QT in some respects provides a BTC Put if you will. It's a signal that all the issues related to the bond market and US deficits and debt outstanding are very much still alive and kicking. Now - how Bitcoin behaves within the broad numbers shown below is anyone's guess, and my best guess is that it breaks towards/away from these levels and perhaps clearly above based on the market's perception of when/how Powell moves. Exchange rates move on the margin, and it takes big money to move it in a big way. Just because someone continues to DCA a few hundred bucks a month and clings to their stack does not mean the exchange rate has to go up.
A wild card changes everything potentially. Biggest wild card is America potentially actively buying Bitcoin in my view, or using it in someway as part of a creative attempt to escape like the 100YR Zero Coupon Bond. The Bitcoin Lid is not permanent and can be bumped off if there is enough boiling activity in the pot that pops it off.
97K
94K
*91K*
85K
78K
73K
68K
91K key. Turns into support = quite bullish possibilities. Rejected there - downside protection very important.
April 2nd Doomsday and Beyond
Trump, Lutnick, and Bessent continue to try and thread the needle while Powell/BOJ do the same. How nasty will the heat be when they fail? Or will it work?
I'll look at this from two angles mainly A) Treasuries and tariffs, and B) domestic growth plans. Looks like they are making some credible progress in terms of messaging and managing the bond market and poking and prodding other nations to at least acknowledge and accept things need to be evened out in terms of who carries all the weight economically, financially, and politically. 'Leaders' in the EU in some cases are already getting pro-active on this front. UST has been decent while the UK and Germany see yields breaking new ground.
Domestic Growth Plans - here is where I see more trouble. The bottom half of consumer spending is on the ropes, and currently I'm just not seeing how any type of tax cuts or new fiscal stimulus navigates its way through lawfare and Congress "in time" if you will. Maybe I'm wrong. Again - threading the needle in the DC Swamp . . . . . . . . I don't look at it as a high percentage play.
Fed would lean much more dovish on cuts if the economic data did truly tank. We have not yet seen that with jobs and spending, though it could be coming. So where does that leave Trump's grand plan for the economy? Seems squishy to me if they can pull it off.
Bessent's Wallet
Getting a little light there, Bessent will need to raise cash to pump up his checking account not too long from now. Oh - but the debt ceiling?
MSTR and Bitcoin Strength
My take: If entities and/or people keep buying the convertibles Saylor is selling, then Saylor will keep buying Bitcoin. Is there an exchange rate, market event, or other data point that would cause these buyers to stop buying and/or turn to sellers? I have no idea.
Additionally - part of my posture more recently is due to my stance that Bitcoin is not immune to market forces - i.e. I don't think Bitcoin has moved to a point where "nobody can mess with it". I think the exchange rate absolutely could move significantly in either direction. The exchange rate price is at the margin, not what all the HODLers think it is or should be. I first learned about it in 2012. UASF a few years later was a scenario facing an existential threat possibly - charlatans and self anointed Masters of the Universe nearly hijacked and commandeered Bitcoin. Yes, the political risk is way, way, way down now. But, it can still get smacked around on the exchanges which means prudence is paramount in my humble view.
Gamestop
Speaking of MSTR - now part of the flip side to the risk posed by it. Gamestop, no stranger to MOMO and FOMO, appears set to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. How many entities exist that are publicly traded already yet lost, off course, attempting to spring back to life, or otherwise in an unusual and unique corporate scenario? Now there is some potential FOMO and MOMO amped up by Game Theory if more were to adopt the MSTR playbook. Nothing is free though. Keep that in mind.
ETF/ETP Spreading
One of Bitcoin's roles is that of the life preserver carried on boats. BlackRock was kind enough to get the ETPs going in Europe. Japan, Hong Kong, now Europe on top of the U.S. Get it?
Fintech = Lightning, No?
In a light-hearted jab at the FinTech world, I've often asked "isn't FinTech just kinda learning the Lightning Network"? Well, although there may be some truth to my jab and implied by my question, the folks at Onramp do a much better job taking it further and across multiple categories in this nice report.
Near Term Forward Spread
Reminder - the market's opinion today on where it thinks the 3-month T-Bill rate will be 18 months from now relative to today's 3-month T-Bill rate. Watered Down Translation = if the market thinks ST rates (those that are in fact effectively controlled by the Fed) will be lower or higher in 18 months.
If the econ data did in fact tank . . . . . . . . institutions would, in my view, plow into that juicy 2YR very aggressively and bring the forwards down with it.
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