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Bitcoin Observations - 12/13

By davidgyoung | Alternative Investing | 12 Dec 2024


Bitcoin Observations

This is NOT investment advice. 

 

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Bank of England Tells Public "Nothing to See Here"

The Bank of England intends to hide the names of any insurance companies, pensions, or hedge funds that get bailed out under a new program it created.  The Bloomberg headline contains terms like "Shadow Banks" and "new BOE tool" and "secret" as the Bank of England casually gaslights the public with "nothing to see here, move along".  Why does this matter for Bitcoin?  Same old story.  These "highly esteemed bankers and experts" don't have any magic tricks though they would like you to believe that they do.  Bailouts of some sort are more or less the only tools they have.  Whether it is the BOE or Fed - choice is between a deflationary collapse (civil unrest, war, mass starvation, etc.) or an attempt to "inflate our way out of this".  All of it is very bullish for Bitcoin on an extended timeline for those that are patient

bank of england bitcoin

 

Ray Dalio and Bitcoin

Ray Dalio made some interesting comments regarding money and Bitcoin recently:

ray dalio bitcoin

 

 

As suggested and implied by prior posts here, I don't look at these "announcements" from the perspective of a finance bro-ski cheerleader gushing "oh, did you see what person xxxxx said on CNBC today?"  Instead, I try to filter the noise and ask WHY a person of such confirmed "prominence" (in this case within the world of finance and investing) would make certain statements at certain times.  Why would Ray Dalio specifically mention "debt money problem"?   Why is he stating "debt money" and not just for example "budget problems" or "fiscal constraints"?  What is money anyways (another post forthcoming)?

Dalio says the money itself is debt and he prefers Bitcoin over bonds.  Now . . . . . . THAT is something I would never have predicted ten years ago would come out of the mouth of a "Wall Street Titan" like Dalio. 

Russia State Owned Media Trial Balloons Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

Game theory.  Obviously not being well versed in domestic Russian politics notwithstanding, apparently a notable political figure/group is proposing the creation of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.  The information was reported by state owned media rather than being suppressed.  Game theory is really picking up speed regarding Bitcoin

Net Interest Expense

With the entire curve between 400 bps and 600 bps (with some calls for even higher), please explain how this trend will change:

interest on the debt

Refi Tidal Wave Approaches

If you recall a tsunami of UST comes due for refi in 2025 and it's approaching quickly.  Naturally, the first two months of the 2025 fiscal year are already showing the largest deficit figures on record:

us budget deficit

And the Fed will keep ST rates this high when it is the one and only literal and direct tool it has to alleviate some pressure on the Treasury?

Brazilian Real

brz vs usd chart

Chinese Yuan

Here we go again.  China is again teasing more stimulus, but it's always the "we'll pay our bill next week" routine seemingly.  Don't want any humans on this planet to suffer and we should all be on the same team, but China has very serious issues that aren't going away.  Time will tell. 

Note how the floodgates have been opened in HK for BTC and even China is changing its tune due to Game Theory. 

chinese yuan and bitcoin

Treasury Digital Gold

In a report titled "Digital Assets and the Treasury Market" the U.S. Treasury openly declares that the top use case for Bitcoin "seems to be" as a SOV and digital gold. 

us treasury digital gold

Santa Monica Out Front

Santa Monica has a Bitcoin Office and an apparently very pro-BTC vice mayor that is presenting at a Bitcoin conference in El Salvador in 2025.  Maybe they could sprinkle some live rewards on the map of Santa Monica and encourage people to enjoy healthy walking while visiting small businesses in the city.   

Operation Bitcoin

Operation Bitcoin is an organization out there doing great things to help society as a whole.  As a former Army Officer (13A) I can see some very logical connections.  I also own mining equipment via an entity that I control.  Would I want a bunch of military veterans running mining operations?  Heck yeah. 

Support them if you can. 

bitcoin military veterans

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davidgyoung
davidgyoung Verified Member

BTC since 2013. Investor. Entrepreneur. Always looking to learn and develop.


Alternative Investing
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