Bitcoin Observations

This is NOT investment advice. 

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Bitcoin Hashprice - Stop Looking Backwards?

Luxor makes the case that miners have it all wrong obsessing over the SPOT hashprice . . . . . . instead gander over more so at the Forward hashprice.  The data apparently shows this is a much more accurate way of forecasting when running a Bitcoin mining business.  On our list for further study and analysis.

BTC Active Addresses Pick Up

Courtesy of Glassnode - we can see that active Bitcoin addresses continue to build a bit of a foundation without expressing excessive exuberance - perhaps a healthy sign:

Bitcoin Mining Transaction Fees

Transaction fees for Bitcoin continue to tease to the upside.  Worth watching to see signs of more adoption and day to day use, often seen growing in bullish markets that sustain for a while. 

Phantom and Coinbase

The crypto media reported that a relatively new and unknown app (until recently) known as Phantom is outperforming Coinbase in the app download rankings.  This is interesting.  Maybe this suggests more people are looking for more day to day entertainment/enjoyment from their relationship with "crypto" and that "new crypto banks and exchanges" are already being treated . . . . . . . . like TradFi bank apps?  Time will tell. 

Couple Reminders on . . . . . . . Reality

Courtesy of the work done by Apollo Global Management . . . . here are a few reminders.  Whether one is for or against Trump's selection of a Secretary of the Treasury, math is math. 

A gargantuan amount of debt comes due for refi pretty soon actually, and the costs to service this debt annually are skyrocketing with the entire curve between 400bps and 500bps.  Solution?  There is none.  What might help?  Fed hammering down short term rates would alleviate pressure on the government but not without other costs. 

The new guy might be intelligent, but we don't see how that UPB (unpaid balance) goes down.  It's important to remember that not only is the existing debt load sky high, but that total amount is also growing faster than the economy and faster than productivity growth.

Jobs and Fed Response

Another reminder on . . . . . . . reality.  Note the red arrow I added to show the true trend in employment and wages.  The red line in the chart is continuous claims (hint: this gets rid of the silly noise on weekly claims and games states play with data and the BLS).  You decide on the trend and if this might also be something Powell is very focused on but ignored as of late by the "financial experts" in the "media". 

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