This is NOT investment advice.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Add Bitcoin Rewards To Your Apps - sMiles API/SDK
View From Above
Yes I realize my tone and posture is not all that pleasant or cheery at times. With that in mind, let's take a look at my free-spirited bullish outlook. I truly do see us potentially sitting at a very critical juncture in history overall but especially for the financial markets. It's quite clear there are major changes underway not to mention the impacts to come from things like AI and Bitcoin.
Might seem crazy that I would get short BTC (even if in fiat terms for business purposes and something done many times already) at these levels and even if not with the intention of staying there long term. Maybe it is crazy. I still see BTC at this precise time still trapped underneath the Bitcoin Lid and beholden to heavy macro influence trading within this 74K-98K box. The top of that box is really so close to the ATH it might seem like there is no difference at all in the grand scheme of things. Perhaps that is true, but in the day to day price action there is still a big difference.
The thing is though, above $103Kish and in my humble view both Scarcity and Game Theory start to incrementally ratchet higher in importance as each week goes by with it trading above that level (if that were to occur). And this time - there has never been a point in history where there are so many ways for either an individual or institution to acquire Bitcoin. The floodgates truly are open. Yet another reason to monitor Money Flow especially on the higher Time Frames.
I'll put it this way. In 2025 - could see it touch $300K just as easily as I could see it touch $64K.
Bitcoin Weekly
First - why? Let's think strategically and longer term. Bitcoin made a big move off the high teens level. Some may view it as a 5 Wave move into that 109Kish high. Is that it? It's all over? We don't know. Bigger picture - we still don't know with certainty if this is a correction/consolidation (are we in a Wave 2 of a much larger 5 Wave move?) or if Bitcoin is about to set a lower high. Even if you are the most perfect and enthusiastic Bitcoin maxi in the world . . . . . . we still do not know with certainty if Bitcoin is setting a lower high right now.
In my view it is very, very important to simply accept the fact that this thing could still turn lower and find a new low below that 74K-78K zone. It is possible. Yet - as laid out above it is literally so close to some other interesting dynamics as well.
Weekly:
Still not seeing anything that says "off to the races" just yet:
4HR:
Liquidation Heat Map - Higher Time Frame
Fomo Finder
Bitcoin Bottom Line:
- next few weeks need to find out if this 91K-98K area sets a new lower high or if it serves as a zone for healthy consolidation and resumption of bullish momentum
- Weekly still sitting on the fence
- Macro comes screaming back this week with Fed Meeting whether we like it or not
Risk On/Off
Let's look at the QQQ Weekly. Sitting right around the 21 day EMA, touched and went above the 50 DMA, and is approaching a Fed Meeting in a mindset where I could argue the market is now literally expecting QE:
I think it's fair to say at this point the market is expecting all of the following:
- QE at some point, will discuss more timing below
- Tax relief of some sort in the U.S.
- Tariff relief in the sense that "deals get done" and disruption overall is not an ongoing obstacle, equities looking past this to the resolution rather than conflict component
- Debt and financing issues 'get fixed' somehow so that ' stocks don't have to worry about it'
To me - this seems like a heavy load to carry not to mention how the sharpest, fastest, and biggest equity rallies tend to happen within larger Bear Market structures. Oh - and this is all here right now as we head into a Fed Meeting and The Powell Shrug possibly.
Needless to say I am still light and nimble and waiting and observing primarily (hence the male puma alert and watching ready to pounce if need be).
The crowd is plowing into stocks hand over fist so far in 2025:
So which is it? The econ data is rock solid so we should all get levered long and ride the growth story? Or, the hard data will 'catch down' to the soft data and the Fed will fold and cave in and we should be levered long to front run that?
In my view - naturally equities have front-run . . . . . . . . . . . essentially every possible outcome here in the short run! And this all occurs quite fortuitously around all these key levels like the 21EMA and 50DMA and other levels and points that most are already recognizing. With Powell coming this week.
Let's see what happens.
Interesting action late in the week, the 2YR bailed on the Powell Dovey Lovey:
The Powell Shrug and Am I Too Slow or Fast?
This "QE Trade is back on" got me thinking a bit more about it. Gold, Dollar, Bitcoin, and then equities come screaming higher to catch up to all. Bonds have been generally trending down in yield for the last couple months. Is the market simply full bore expecting and demanding balance sheet expansion at this point? In my view one could argue that this is the case.
But why, and is the timing appropriate? Markets are many things as stated before to include discounting mechanisms. In terms of timing, here are some observations:
- Zerohedge.com reports the Treasury will maintain auction sizes planned for the next several quarters
- at the moment there are no fires brewing with bank reserves
- basis trade 'crisis' settled down for now
- ZeroHedge.com also reported that true analysts and experts that follow auctions and UST markets very closely projecting balance sheet runoff in Q12026
So, the big question everyone needs answered is not the exact path of rate cuts but IF and WHEN the Fed progresses through the following: 1) completely stop selling so the BS flat-lines, and 2) the Fed starts buying and increasing the balance sheet.
We know there is a "massive refi wall" approaching, but based on the above nobody seems to be projecting for it anytime soon. The question is If/When the Fed officially stops selling and then furthermore when they actually start to buy. All we know now is that Powell stated the process of winding down QT (meaning they are approaching the point of not being a seller but still selling) is underway. Powell might punt on cuts for a few more meetings do we really expect him to all of a sudden "turn on the money printers" as is without some sort of event or crisis to trigger such action?
Is the market already far ahead and expecting the so called "money printing" well before the 'schedule' is indicating? My own view is that I do not know. The part that doesn't add up to me is how the Treasury refis all of this ST debt coming due without selling more or getting another huge buyer involved. This part feels very cryptic to me at this point (yet Gold and BTC seem to indicate how it will ultimately play out).
Am I the only one that can see how "debt issuance has to go through the roof" yet Bessent keeps telling us no changes for several quarters? What gives? Perhaps we are overlooking the most obvious elephant in the room - Bitcoin. The Treasury arguably needs Bitcoin to go a lot higher to further drive stablecoin adoption to create an even larger buying pool for ST UST. What does America have up its sleeve in terms of a move directly related to Bitcoin?
Near Term Forward Spread
About Those Stablecoins . . . . . . . . . . . And The Fed Funds Rate
Here's another one of my insane and crazy takes: the longer Powell keeps the FFR elevated above the "rate of inflation" (as if we can even agree on that) and above the 2YR, the easier it is for Bessent to transition as much of the UST market as possible to stablecoins. If the Fed hammered ST rates down to zero now, what would happen to stablecoin demand and adoption? It would slow down to a crawl.
I'm not saying Bessent wants ST rates "higher for longer" but I am saying that stablecoins are much more appealing when users can see how they earn yield. If rates plummet so does that aggregate amount of earnings distributed by stablecoins.
Mining and Real Estate
Seems inevitable - the development, construction, and management of physical property collides with Bitcoin mining. Interesting article from BitcoinMagazine.com.
Download sMiles Browser Extension - Earn Bitcoin From Your Desktop/Laptop
Download the sMiles Browser Extension.
Earn Free Bitcoin Playing Games
Get Free Bitcoin Automatically
