This is NOT investment advice. 

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Where Are We . . . . . . . Tug of War

Market was giving Bessent the benefit of the doubt as Tariff Mania approached and the ensuing gyrations caused forward economic expectations to dive.  Bessent had time to establish the new tone with trading partners as yields gradually declined to eventually the 10YR slipping below 400 BPS.  It's a new ballgame now.

I can't help but add up the persistent pressures upwards now I see on yields globally.  Firming up growth.  Increased fiscal spending.  A race to grow the fastest possible to "outpace" the debt.  Global M2 surging higher.  Net Interest Expense ramping up let that sink in.  A pinned down Treasury that needs to either launch YCC via Treasury Buybacks and/or force the Fed to expand the balance sheet.  Yields globally that could truly enter orbit in Japan and Brazil and elsewhere.  I try to work through every angle but absent either A) an economic collapse, or B) very strong intervention . . . . . . . . I'm not seeing what would in a broad sense put downward pressure on yields.  There is very strong political pressure to grow as well.  The people are sick and tired of the nonsense and are demanding a healthy economy. 

Rising yields should crush global economic growth in theory . . . . . . . . . . but the 'Melt Up' may very well be already kicked into gear - a tug of war of sorts.

Back to this one?  We don't know.  Think about the 'soft data' and overlay it onto the 'possible' waves shown here.  It kinda adds up. 

Wave 1 - "Hey looks like we got something cookin' here, building some momentum!"

Wave 2 - "Oh no, what now? Here we go again.  Maybe we'll be ok. Hmmm, could be getting back on track. Aww, that sucked but hopefully we're good now."

Wave 3 - signs of mania emerge

Wave 4 - 'it's all over', 'Bitcoin is dead again'

Wave 5 - mania, euphoria

Or, we already topped?  You know what we didn't see these last few months?  Railroad tracks.  Shooting stars on the weekly.  Huge, huge volume blow off tops.  Didn't see those.

Bitcoin Weekly

Bitcoin Daily

Glassnode highlights how it's a runaway freight train building with the capital coming in since the summer of 2024:

Liquidation Heat Map - Higher Time Frame

Coinglass.com:

Bitcoin Bottom Line

- Let the market tell/show us what is next

- Extremely significant recent signals and pivot points still holding: i.e. BTC rallying with bonds crashing and LT debt yet to front-run stimulus chatter (meaning the debt time bomb demands MOAR), this is positive

- Appears for now clear above the 103Kish and on pullbacks has responded bullishly so far on lower time frames; 105K/107Kish, so far starting to treat 107Kish as some light support, bullish that 'bad news' this past week has not yet disrupted the Weekly MF

- Broader concepts of the 'Melt Up' pieces seemingly aligning and Treasury Secretary has literally spelled out Option B for the masses multiple times now in public, all very, very bullish for many reasons not the least of which is the persistent push up on both global debt and fiscal spending to try and grow faster than the debt

Bitcoin Blossoms Bound to Brewing Bellicose Bonds?

UST 10YR Weekly

That title was teased here a few posts back, so what do we have here now.  Let's look at the flagship JGB 10YR.  We already know the 30Y and 40Y JGBs have entered orbit, longer durations getting really wiped out aggressively.  The 10YR has almost tripled in yield since the Powell/Harris 50 BPS cut.

Lots of moving pieces, not something that will just magically disappear . . .

Notice any bigger picture trend changes?

Been saying to keep an eye on Japan for a while now.  If JGBs light the fuse, then . . . . . . .

Brazil 10YR Weekly

Risk On/Off

SPY 4HR

Inside the Blue Circle not much buying enthusiasm I can see when Spoos danced between 5900 and 6000.  Volume picked up a bit on this pullback but didn't really follow through to the downside with energy.  In the very short term (I took profits on UVIX early Friday), not willing to risk profits on a low volume melt higher Tuesday when the prior session couldn't really break it to the downside.  Obviously, Bessent went out to slay VOL all day Friday. 

Speaking of Bessent, the ZeroHedge.com recap of his interview tour was excellent.  Clearly he wanted to calm the markets but it also provided yet again multiple additional direct references to Option B.  He's now publicly stating repeatedly we need to grow faster than the debt grows.

I bring this up with respect to Risk On.  My senses are strongly leaning that the Melt Up is on.  The resilience shown by equities and yields persistently pushing higher globally are suggestive of this.  Interestingly, Bessent also basically kicked out austerity and said the annual deficit would have a 3 handle in a few years.  Without admitting it publicly, Bessent knows deficits will persist and Option B is the only plausible way forward.  Again - the Melt Up.  

Not looking to short, will revisit UVIX, very cognizant of the brewing Melt Up, but honed in on the 5900/6000 zone for Spyder as this 'clearly defined' range in my view has the focus of the market for now to see in terms of direction where equities might head.  50 DMA below and 5900/6000 above. 

QQQ Daily

Interesting how volume has been rising, generally, in a bullish way during this major bounce, but as the Spoos pranced around inside 5900/6000 the Nasdaq wasn't able to make any more ground up.  Money Flow in the Red on the daily.  More reason for me to wait and be cautious and see how things shake out.  Would a simple test of the 21 EMA cause a CNBC permabull to have a nervous breakdown?

Americans Want to Convert 10% of The Gold to Bitcoin

We'll take this as is and assume the polling here is legit and credible.  Either way, it's fairly obvious that more of the American public sees value and stacking some coin for sure.

Building on Bitcoin

One of Dr. Adam Back's projects, the Liquid sidechain, is picking up momentum as reported by BitcoinMagazine.com. 

Uranium - CCJ Weekly

Been long this one for a while now, few years.  It's time for me to add significantly to this position opportunistically as we assess Risk On/Off and look for spots to add more.  Unfortunately, I did not do so before this week and haven't added in a few years.  It's game time now.  This time for real - in my opinion.

CCJ and ZAP are my main plays for Power/Energy/AI/Bitcoin.

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