This is NOT investment advice.
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Energy Aspirates Bitcoin From Above
Wrestling with this abstract concept. Not sure if I can define it and capture it sufficiently. Yes, Liquidity is in all likelihood the primary driver of the Bitcoin exchange rate on an extended timeline and thinking through the math logically. But what else?
Powell Shrugs, QE punted out further possibly, and Bitcoin only gets stronger. Globally - absolutely the liquidity machine is aligning and most CBs are easing already. Nonetheless - I can't help but picture in my head this giant vacuum if you will above that is starting to more and more suck higher what I envision to be the hashrate, hashprice, and exchange rate.
What is this vacuum? The global demand and need for energy and energy infrastructure. AI is playing huge role in terms of demand for it, but it's Bitcoin that allocates, assigns, and determines value over and across the energy sector over time. In a way, the need for more . . . . . . . brings more up.
Energy = Bitcoin = Money
Bitcoin Weekly
Bitcoin Daily
Miners
Is this like when TiNA says there's still some hope for us? Mining hasn't really hit its stride for a couple years now. So you're telling me there's hope?
Liquidation Heat Map - Higher Time Frame
We have a green dot on the Weekly Money Flow now. Tons of liquidity above. With enough energy, liquidity above can be 'flipped' and converted to rocket fuel. Can also serve as strong rejection as we have seen several times already last few months. Time will tell.
Bitcoin Bottom Line:
- we still do not know with certainty (nor will we ever perhaps) if this will for real break 103Kish and run right now, right away, or right when you want it to
- It appears quite possible it is out of that 74K-98K box
- Let the market tell/show us
Strategy
Premiums baked into calls must be insane on this one. This is a very bullish chart, in my opinion:
Are Bonds Sniffing Out . . . . . . . . . Actual Economic Growth . . . . . . Validating Equity Bounce?
4HR of the 10YR last few sessions little bit of zip and rip on the selling here. Why? SOMA in play hey the Fed has your back right? Are bonds starting to sniff out a strengthening economy?
Won't be long before the long end starts asking how and who is going to pay for all the spending required to pull off Treasury Secretary Bessent's Option B.
4HR of the 2YR similar if not an even stronger reaction last handful of sessions:
Risk On/Off
In the short term, the path of least resistance for equities may very well be higher. Always open to all options, color me opportunistically long exposed now. My entry on TiNA was not as ideal as I would prefer but nonetheless during a brief pullback early in the week before the latest jawboning. The reality is equities have shown much more resilience and frankly ability to shrug things off. VOL has obviously come down (though still elevated) but the correlation with plunging Bond VOL is telling. Things are more subdued and calm, equities drift higher. Seeing much more action where equities respond quickly to pullbacks front-running the much more ideal entry points people are seeking to use.
For a real raging new bull to emerge for equities we need leadership. Watch the IBD Groups. The market 'needs the MAG 7' but those won't be the new growth leaders IF a new bull is brewing. I'm open to that idea, though that could still happen and we could have new lows still in 2025. At this precise moment I'm willing to lean long and see where it goes.
The new leading groups might be boosted by BTC Treasury plays, but we need more than that. What are the new groups with operating cash flows that are booming because these markets are booming. My senses tell me energy and commodities will be in there though not necessarily the old tried and true crowd favorites.
I am sensing somewhat that something is brewing in terms of growth overall.
In terms of Risk On/Off let's check in on some overall liquidity and stimulus factors shall we say:
Fed - Punts on cuts and balance sheet expansion pushed out perhaps? Already tipped hand on BS expansion in the works though. SOMA stimmies arrive on the scene loose change swirling around from the Expansion and Contraction of the BS let's toss the leftovers right back into Bessent's auctions all good now huh? Net net the Fed is in QEish already but how long do these leftover crumbs keep pulling up aces for Bessent?
BOJ - Here we go again. Already hinting at folding yet again and going back to dove mode. Bottom line - for BTC and Risk On the BOJ is providing an environment more conducive to the Yen Carry, i.e. it's a pump for Risk.
Other CBs - Already into official easing mode generally.
I'm not taking out any huge shorts against all of these guys but will be opportunistic. The 'Melt Up' actually aligns with Option B we just can't possibly time it perfectly. Price/Volume and we pay attention. I'm not saying we can't go lower and/or correct again hard and possibly soon, but . . . . . . . .it can levitate for far longer than your shorts can stay alive.
Stacks Starts Sizzling, 'Alt Season' Teams Suiting Up For Battle?
My mind is very much absolutely open to the concept of an 'Alt Season' emerging. But - my senses tell me it's not the same one most are envisioning. Bitcoin dominates. The 'Alt Season' that seems entirely logical to me is with the Bitcoin L2s, but I am a bit crazy at times.
It's not like nobody is using it:
What I look at here below first are the reactions previously. When Bitcoin was making that big move up from the teens (was that Wave 1 of a monstrous 5 Wave move? We don't know yet for sure), STX showed that it can run a little bit as well. Pays a yield in Bitcoin (confirmed like clockwork). That reaction is what I wanted to see. Shows it can and very well could move in sympathy with Bitcoin if called upon to do so by the market. The impulse is there.
Narrative: "It's built on Bitcoin and pays a Bitcoin dividend"
Looking at this weekly, Stacks might be getting ready to really start sizzling:
BitcoinLayers.org
Whether you like it or not, a Bitcoin L2/Alt Season could commence. Bitcoinlayers.org is building out data and analytics in the same space as Signal21.io. I strive to prepare so I can hopefully accurately assess what the market is telling me, not the other way around.
'Crypto' M&A Bullish Signals Start Adding Up
Coinbase acquired derivatives exchange Deribit this week. Ripple, desperate for well let's just say a reason for existing, wants to force itself into the stablecoin field by buying Circle. Circle wants a big, fat, juicy IPO as the exit. I'm confident more are brewing already. Bullish for stablecoins and the ecosystem as a whole. Regardless of the firms involved the fact that people are "looking to make deals" says a lot about the state of the market and ecosystem. It's getting more bullish.
ZAP
I'm long ZAP and have been for over a week or so. I'm considering building this position, and this is not a trade per se. I won't be fussing over red dots on the 1HR MF but rather babysitting to ensure it doesn't get too out of line (like living below the 200DMA).
More of a broader, secular play for me. Let's see what happens. Yes, I realize it is small right now in terms of overall size, daily volume, etc.
I don't know what I don't know about AI. I can't follow all of the different companies, names, etc. - then the next week there are 5x new competitors launched anyways. Valuations seem insane. I'm starting to see more traction in terms of organizations and people using it to gain tangible results. Earnings season highlighted that CAPEX towards AI might not have a growth rate that is rising, but the market is still huge and growing. AI needs more power. That I can understand. ZAP should benefit from the infrastructure needs and demands created by AI and Bitcoin.
River Business Accounts
River keeps plugging away. Interesting data they shared showing how Bitcoin business accounts are spreading across multiple industries.
Revolut Electrifies With Lightning Network
BitcoinMagazine.com reports that Revolut and its 15 million users will be using the Lightning Network. Very bullish.
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