It is already known the tensed relationship between Turkey and the United States. I'll also mention that Turkey's relationship with the European Union is also in a poor shape, especially with Germany, France and with the "old enemies" Greece and Cyprus. Most recently, Turkey has something against Romania too, after the so-called racist incident which involved the Romanian referees during the PSG match against Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's football team, Basaksehir.
So, what happened recently is that the US sanctioned Turkey for buying some Russian missiles and I'm referring to the S-400 missile defense system. The US argue that this defense air system of missiles is not compatible with NATO systems and there is a huge possibility for the Russian system to disrupt the functionality of the rest of NATO equipment, which could represent a risk for the entire security of NATO states. The US is accusing Turkey for buying weapons from its rival, the Russian Federation, which, honestly is not a friendly move by Turkey either. Turkey is a member of NATO and the entire organization is perceived as the biggest enemy by Moscow. This purchase, combined with the sanctions and Erdogan's anti-US positions may threaten the resistance of NATO.
After many discussions in Washington regarding Turkey, it has been decided on the 14th of December 2020 that sanctions must be imposed to Turkey. The legal framework for the sanctions is the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The idea behind the sanctions is very simple actually: Erdogan should take a step back, otherwise it will be very bad for his country. Even the name of the CAATSA implies that Turkey is perceived as an adversary by the United States. Looking at a few statements regarding the sanctions, I would say that there will be some effects, but the most important consequence is that the rift between these two countries, which are also NATO member states, will expand even more. Following this moment, each country will further develop its own geo-political strategy, which is going to be very different than the other.
Through these sanctions, the Trump administration focused on individuals, but also on Turkish institutions: Turkey's Presidency of Defense Industries, which represent the sole company that buys military stuff, its chief of course, but also other high ranking Turkish officials. Also, prior to these new sanctions, in 2019 Washington tried to convince Turkey to give up on buying the Russian system and decided to refuse Turkey the access to the F-35 stealth jet programme. If Turkey was still on in this programme, it would have meant that Ankara was in the game with the possibility of receiving the newest airplane, the F-35, which not many NATO member states would have had the honor. That was a very serious decision and it showed how serious the United States were in this issue. Still, Turkey went on and finalized the deal with the Russians.
Is there any more future for Turkey in NATO?
Following the recent sanctions a legit question arises: will Turkey still be a NATO member? The answer is more complex than at first sight. It is a certainty that Turkey and the US don't understand each other any more and the diplomatic relations are bad. This means that a possible NATO-EXIT for Turkey is likely to happen.
Historically speaking, NATO has been created to counter-balance the Soviet Union power during the Cold War. The end of the Cold War meant a resettlement of NATO mentality, as long as the former USSR have ceased to exist. Still, most of its strategy is to contain Russia, which the most powerful player in the Black Sea region, which also represents the eastern border of NATO. If Turkey leaves the alliance, then this may do serious damage to NATO and will bring joy to Putin and Moscow.
There is a precedence with France, but Paris didn't go completely out from NATO. France decided to stop being part of the central command of NATO in 1967. In 2009, France returned. The idea of Turkey going out is bad, because Ankara has the biggest number of military personnel involved, after Washington contribution.
What is the impact of the sanctions?
The US targeted the military industry of Turkey in order to diminish Turkish capabilities to strengthen its military power. There will be no cooperation between American and Turkish defense companies. Looking at the other side of the coin, Turkey will probably try to cooperate more with private contractors, as long as Ankara cannot rely anymore on its American cooperation. By looking at this, I would say Turkey can diversify its military, weapons and army infrastructure, because the market just opened and there could be found many options, instead of just one.
Regarding the sanction, the Turkish air force will be affected. According to some statements from previous years, Erdogan wanted to modernize some of the airplanes and really thought that he will get some F-35 too. But now, the modernization will not happen, or at least in the the short term, as long as the planes are American and Turkey will not get any spare parts or technology, and the F-35 will not come either.
It's curios to see how Turkey will respond to these sanctions, as long as the country is pretty much isolated in the international community. Does it have the strength or the power to respond effectively? Only time will show, but for a very interesting analysis, I recommend you to watch this video.
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