Bitcoin ($BTC) has regained a position above the SMA 200, and alt-coins are making a comeback. Now, it might be short-lived, but it's still worth trading. And the current meta is "utility," maybe even the most boring sector: boomer utility coins. We're going to go gem hunting, but we need some macroeconomic context to explain why this is a bounce.
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1 The Short-Term Outlook Is Positive To assess the short-term price action, I like to look at the VIX Term Structure -- under the assumption that the S&P 500 and cryptos are broadly correlated. The term structure is complex, but its signals are easy to understand. You can think of it as a betting market using options for monthly periods (blue dots). If market participants think things are positive, that monthly % is positive. If you have month-over-month of rising blue dots, things are generally favorable. That's exactly what we have right now. 
The VIX Term Structure, however, is focused on short-term outcomes. Typically, I find that it's helpful in understanding the forward 5 trading days. If you want something focused on the longer term, then credit spreads in the bond market are typically a good place to look. Reminder: Here is the link to the FREE Case Study. Discover how we crushed Bitcoin's performance by 457% by using on-chain data.
2 Corporate Bond Spreads
Corporate bonds have ratings, and a BAA rating means they are high quality. The safest bonds, in theory, would be priced at the Federal Funds Rate. The chart shows the difference (spread) between the BAA bond yield and the Federal Funds Rate. If that difference (blue line) is rising, this means that bond investors are demanding more money to take on the slightly higher credit risk. You can see a long-term climb (above the red line) and that we've resumed that trend over the past month (green arrow). 
This means that the bond market--often called the most "un-spinable" market--is doubting that the US economy is heading in the right direction. Additional data include the most recent reading of the Purchasing Manufacturer's Index (PMI), which dropped below 50, indicating a contraction. So, we have a bounce in the short term, but a longer term worry. How can we trade that?
3 The Meme Coins
$FARTCOIN has gained headlines as it's charging back powerfully. $PEPE made a jump in just the past 12 hours. The coin that has caught my eye is $spx6900 -- which is THE cult coin. It is back above a longer term support-resistance line. Maybe $GIGA will follow. 
4 The Most Boomer Utility Coin
But the strongest trend favors utility. The most "boomer" utility coin that I can think of is Curve ($CRV). It does boring stuff, such as (basically) ensure that stablecoins in all of DeFi have sufficient liquidity to work. Nobody cares about that narrative ... except, maybe, institutional players. And so, $CRV is back above its trendline.
5 Concluding Thoughts
Other utility coins include $HBAR, $FXS, $cake, and even (in AI) $Cookie. In most cases, I think these will be successful long-term projects. Against this macroeconomic backdrop, however, I'm looking to trade. April 2nd might bring some further relief, so watch that date.
DYOR. NFA.
And Happy Trading!
-Sebastian Purcell, PhD
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