There are three factors that could prevent Bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high in 2025. Binance founder CZ says Bitcoin could reach $500,000 to $1 million this cycle. Florida takes Bitcoin strategic reserve bills off the table. Standard Chartered says BNB price could reach $2,775 in 2028, a gain of over 360%. Here's how XRP outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q1 2025. 88% of Bitcoin supply is in profit. Glass Node signals strong market support.
Three factors that could prevent Bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high in 2025
- Despite the optimism surrounding Bitcoin, economist Timothy Peterson warns that there are three key risks that could slow its rise to a new all-time high this year. First, negative market sentiment. Recent indicators show a deterioration in consumer and investor confidence. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey is declining. The American Association of Individual Investors survey reflects only 20% optimism versus 60% pessimism. NaM's equity exposure ratio sits at 60%, below the 80% typical in bull markets. This pessimistic environment could limit the flow of capital into risky assets like Bitcoin.
- Second Federal Reserve Monetary Policy The market has anticipated approximately three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of 2025. However, if these cuts do not materialize, the narrative of abundant liquidity could fade, negatively impacting speculative assets like Bitcoin.
The next Fed meeting is scheduled for May 7.
- Third, unforeseen macroeconomic risks: Unexpected events such as natural disasters, cyberattacks on financial infrastructure, or geopolitical conflicts can trigger massive market sell-offs. In such scenarios, Bitcoin, being a high-beta asset, could experience abrupt declines due to its sensitivity to liquidity and risk appetite. Despite these challenges, Bitcoin has remained in a lateral range in recent weeks, fluctuating between 93,000 and 97,000. The market is closely watching the evolution of these factors to determine whether Bitcoin can surpass its previous all-time high.
Binance founder CZ says Bitcoin could reach $500,000 to $1 million this cycle.
Binance co-founder Champeng CZ SAO expects the Bitcoin price to peak at $500,000 to $1 million during this market cycle. During an interview with Rook Radio, SAO said he expects Bitcoin to peak at $1 million during this market cycle. He also highlighted the role of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds in this rally, saying that the growing institutionalization of Bitcoin is a good thing for the market.
There are ETFs. This institutionalization of Bitcoin is positive in terms of price action. Obviously, our stock markets have risen, not so much altcoins, but at least Bitcoin has. SAO explained that ETFs are bringing traditional institutional money into crypto, and most of the money in the United States is institutional money. He said Bitcoin is rising because most ETFs are based on Bitcoin. Obchakevich Research founder Alex Obchakevich told Coin Telegraph that 70% of Bitcoin's growth is new institutional capital, the rest is just a redistribution of crypto assets. He highlighted the role of ETFs in driving the price of Bitcoin on the rise ETFs, especially Bitcoin ETFs, are a key driver of the bullish trend, but with small, volatile corrections.
Florida pulls Bitcoin strategic reserve bills off the table
Two Florida cryptocurrency bills have been pulled from the legislative process in the latest blow to US state-level Bitcoin strategic reserve ambitions. Florida House Bill 487 and Senate Bill 550 have been indefinitely postponed and withdrawn from consideration on May 3, according to the Florida Senate. The Florida legislative session concluded on May 2 without the passage of these two bills, which would have advanced legislation to establish a cryptocurrency reserve for the state. The Senate and House agreed to extend the session until June 6 to address budget plans. Lawmakers passed approximately 230 bills during the session, addressing issues such as banning fluoride in water, protecting state parks, and banning smartphones in schools. But diversifying state treasury portfolios was not among them. This came just days after Arizona advanced its Bitcoin strategic reserve legislation more than any other state. Until House Bill 1025 was vetoed by Governor Katy Hobbs, who called digital assets unproven investments. On May 3, the Strategic Digital Asset Reserve bill would have allowed Arizona to invest seized funds in Bitcoin and create a reserve managed by state officials.
Standard Chartered says BNB price could reach $2,775 by 2028, a gain of over 360%.
Standard Chartered has initiated coverage of the Binance token, predicting that its price will rise to $2,775 by the end of 2028, a gain of more than 360% from current levels. BNB has traded almost exactly in line with an unweighted basket of Bitcoin and Ethereum since May 2021 in terms of both performance and volatility, wrote Joffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital asset research, in a report published Tuesday and shared with The Block. We expect this relationship to continue, driving BNB's price from around $600 currently to $2,775 by the end of 2028. Kendrick considers BNB a benchmark asset within the cryptocurrency market. While it may underperform Bitcoin and Ether in both real terms and in terms of circulating market capitalization, BNB's deflationary nature and its link to the Binance centralized exchange support its long-term value. According to Kendrick, BNB Chain Binance's tier-one blockchain uses a consensus model called staked proof-of-authority. In this model, only 45 validators are elected every 24 hours based on the amount of staked tokens. This setup makes BNB Chain much more centralized than peer-to-peer networks like Ethereum, which has over a million validators, Kendrick said.
This is how XRP surpassed Bitcoin and Ethereum in the first quarter of 2025.
In a quarter where most major crypto assets faltered or stalled, XRP surged ahead, posting one of its best results in recent years. Ripple's final report on XRP markets, released on May 5, crowned the first quarter of 2025 as a period of major growth for the token. The legal vindication was supported by deepening institutional ties and strong market metrics. XRP's newfound dominance is deeply tied to its victory over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. According to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, he finally withdrew his appeal after years of legal wrangling. The regulator's withdrawal also came with a reduction in the $125 million fine imposed on Ripple. And the company is now expected to pay $50 million, clearing the way for institutional participation. But the courtroom wasn't XRP's only battleground this quarter. With the report highlighting its triumph in the markets as well. In 2025, the cryptocurrency experienced a rally that saw its price rise by 50%, briefly touching $340. A level it had only been at since early 2018. This rally occurred even as altcoins Ethereum and Solana posted double-digit declines and Bitcoin remained virtually flat.
88% of Bitcoin supply is in profit. Glass Node signals strong market support.
According to recent data from Glass Node, 88% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is currently in profit. This indicates a solid support base in the market following the recovery from the March lows. Despite a recent drop from its all-time high of over 90,000 BTC, it has rebounded from the April lows near 50,000 and has consolidated above 94,000. This rebound has led to a large majority of BTC holders being in a profitable position. This suggests a solid foundation for the current market. In addition, Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MBRV) ratio has cooled to its long-term average of 174. Historically, this reset level often corresponds with phases of market consolidation. As observed in a drop in August 2022, where unrealized profits were similarly reduced before another bullish push. However, as BTC approaches the psychological level of 100,000, a level linked to a Aggressive distribution by long-term holders in previous cycles Observers are on the lookout for a potential influx of supply Glass Node warns that maintaining bullish momentum from here will require equally strong demand to absorb any profit-taking In summary, although the Bitcoin market is showing signs of strength with a large proportion of supply in profits The sustainability of this momentum will depend on the market's ability to absorb additional supply as prices approach key psychological levels
