Hopefully by now you have earned some AMPL on Publish0x and taken advantage of the special withdrawal date to move it to a wallet of your choice. I moved mine to an FTX account, FTX being one of the centralised exchanges that rebases fully.
And of course, if you have earned some AMPL and withdrawn it from Publish0x, you may also - like me - have experienced your first rebase. In a way it seems like magic: yesterday I deposited 1.539 AMPL, and now I have 1.622 AMPL. (I do appreciate that in a negative rebase, the opposite movement would happen.)
I must admit I have found AMPL a little tricky to understand because of its unusual characteristics. As supply is elastic, it's necessary to monitor not just price but also supply to understand exactly what is happening both with your holdings and with the currency generally.
To that end I have found the official Ampleforth dashboard enormously useful: https://www.ampleforth.org/dashboard/
This shows you, side by side, how both price and supply have changed over time. Here's what I mean - click on the screengrab to see a larger version:
The price graph includes three horizontal lines: one for the price target, and then one each for the expansion and contraction thresholds (plus and minus 5% of the price target respectively).
If the price is above the expansion threshold, a positive rebase takes place and supply increases; if it is below the contraction threshold, a negative rebase takes place and supply decreases.
Comparing the price graph to the supply graph, it's clear to see that in periods where the price has consistently been below the contraction threshold, supply has fallen. Conversely, where price has been above the expansion threshold, supply has increased. It's worth remembering that although price directly affects supply, over time that change in supply will impact on price.
Above the price graph, the dashboard shows a countdown until the next rebase - this takes place every 24 hours at 02:00 UTC, but having a countdown removes any confusion around time zones!
Plus, more usefully, there is an estimate of how that rebase will affect supply. For example, I can see that tonight's rebase is expected to increase supply by approximately 5.98% - turning my 1.622 AMPL into 1.719 AMPL. (Yes, I can do basic maths.)
The estimate is not fixed, so if you refresh your browser it may well change slightly to take account of more recent data.
Next to the rebase info is the current 'oracle rate', this being "the last reported 24 hour volume weighted average price". At $1.573, the oracle rate as I write this is currently significantly above the expansion threshold - hence the upcoming positive rebase.
I certainly still wouldn't consider myself an AMPL expert, but the dashboard has helped me to understand the fundamentals of price and supply, and how the two relate to each other. If you are new to AMPL, take a look!
Oh, and while we're talking about all things Ampleforth, please check out my AMPL memes. If they don't expand your horizons and make you contract with laughter, I may have missed my target.