Investing is all about numbers and weighing risks against potential returns.
What is the assessment of the project?
To what grade does it have a chance to rise?
What affects its growth?
What will happen in the competitive field?
This is all rough ... and it’s more of a cross-check factor whether the expectations are too high.
The venture phase of blockchain projects is no exception.
It does not matter whether you are directly investing in a project or buying someone's previously made investment (contract) on the OTC secondary market, the key question (cross-check) is what the purchase is worth and what is the potential for the growth of this project's assessment.
And here is Filecoin - a project that I would be very afraid to enter ... earlier and now.
And here is why.
The price of the Filecoin token is now around $125
The estimate (market capitalization (or market cap)) = $7.7 billion
So far, everything seems to be looking good
But now we look further.
The number of issued tokens in circulation is now ONLY 61.9 million out of 2 billion tokens that will be gradually released to the market!
That is, only 3% are now on the market.
Now, if we calculate the full capitalization of the project (fully diluted market cap), simply multiplying the current price by the total volume of 2 billion tokens and we get the maximum potential project estimate of $250 billion.
This is even more expensive than the Ethereum valuation!
And it's NOT in some future, but NOW!
Based on this, ask yourself this question: “What will happen to the price of the token when the circulation on the market is not 3% of all tokens, but 6%? Or 12%?”
Is Filecoin a bear?