Another Crazy Year!
Well, 2022 was a bombshell, and 2023 has been even more explosive, in some instances. In many ways, the future appears even more indiscernible than usual, and yet one has to continue moving forward. These are obviously my own thoughts and interpretations regarding the remainder of this year. These events could also even trickle over into the first half of 2024. The first aspect to consider is how difficult it is to predict certain outcomes, and secondly, how much more difficult it is to establish an accurate timeframe.
This is something that I recently experienced, and in many ways, created a monumental shift in regard to my outlook on the Crypto market. During the course of 2022, I made reference to an event I saw playing out in 2023. This was a banking crisis, or failure if you will. Yes, this did play out as expected in regard to 2023. There was no talk or outward signs of such an event occurring, and so, many were likely to ignore my opinion.
Even though it took place within the predefined timeframe, I had a preconceived view that it would unfold during the last half of 2023. However, we saw it unfold during the first half. Firstly, this indicates that things are inherently worse than initially perceived. Secondly, it means my shift to a more bullish stance came earlier than expected. I view this current market in a similar way to that of 2019.
Essentially, the market has turned. However, that does not exclude a swan event similar to what we experienced in early 2020 with covid. Let’s be honest, anything could suddenly shock the market. Who knows what skeletons Binance has in its closet? As mentioned in yesterday’s post, Gensler has now played his trump card. Whatever hopes Gensler has of destroying Crypto lies within this move. There is nothing else to leverage.
With that being said, there is no valid reason for a strong correction, at this point. Yes, a deep dip can always happen in any market, and at any time. It’s always a probability. However, confluence now lies with the bulls. It’s time to begin moving up, or at least a continuation of consolidation, which is the worst that this SEC noise should be able to achieve. Thin order books could temporarily push the market down. However, I believe the market is beginning to catch on.
So, I am expecting a relatively stable market with a moderately bullish bias for the year. Now, the volatility that could occur in the next six months does not invalidate this idea. However, I believe we will close the year above current levels. We could also see BTC fair a lot better than altcoins if the recent SEC categorization is able to inflict further pain. Maxis have a point to some extent, but they are definitely not right about everything.
Given that I am still expecting the real banking collapse to occur later this year, there could well be a significant increase in volatility. In the short term, we might experience negative repercussions for the Crypto market. However, such an event is extremely bullish for Crypto, and I would expect it to eventually be reflected in the price. Our only hope now is that Binance and Coinbase are not hiding any skeletons significant enough to shut them down.
In short, I envision a fairly bullish path ahead that could be interrupted from time to time with a few “bearish ad breaks”. However, any bearish action is simply momentary, at least until a deviation from the recent pivot has occurred. As I mentioned, it’s important to hold above $25K. Hopefully, investors realize the battle that is at hand and aid in thickening the order books.
I am not too concerned about recent events. However, that could change. However, I am fairly confident it won’t. At the end of the day, we have no insight into Binance’s workings and operations. Until, or if that changes, I remain modestly bullish. Personally, I see dips as buying opportunities at this stage of the game. Please note that these are my personal views and interpretations. This is by no means financial or investment advice. Catch you next time, and stay strong!
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This article was first published on Sapphire Crypto.