Today we have brought this article to summarize all the positive and negative news of the last collapse of the financial markets. We are speaking in general terms because many investors saw their equity decrease more than 50% negative both on the traditional markets and within the cryptocurrency market.
The word liquidation really took possession of the markets because of all these communication disorders we’ve been reading about, listening to, and experiencing, and because of the global war for power.
That fact that we want to comment much more. We want to do it, because we must make it clear “many people are talking about a new economic crisis” but we will talk to you and remind you of the new economic cycle that is just beginning.
Economists Don’t Want You To Know This
We know that you have doubts in relation to everything that is happening in the last days. But we are sure of one thing: economists, governments, big players and other actors belonging to the 1% of the world population that supports the rest do not want you to know one thing, — “IT IS NOT A CRISIS WHAT WE HAVE”, it’s a “A NEW MARKET ECONOMIC CYCLE”.
If you have not forgotten, in a previous market review we had clearly talked about it. The moment of the butterfly effect is being seen due to many factors that are the same media that are spreading.
All that about the Coronavirus, the fall of the stocks and the fight for the oil is looking more like a “Black Swan”. We believe that some of the major players in the market have that need to create that snowball within the markets to take advantage.
Another aspect that we are noticing is that most of the experts are talking that this “possible new global economic crisis” has a great similarity to the “economic crisis” experienced in 2008. Reviewing this statement, we can find a big lie in disguise as most governments tend to do every time they try to support the current traditional economic system.
A imminent lie as part of the strategy. That why? Because there is a true fact: speculation always generates a great movement of the markets and an intensification for the capital. Still not clear? Basically we want to say (personally) that all this that is currently happening comes from that: the black swan, the speculation that will move the markets in the coming months.
With that previous opinion we want to conclude with a first truth: the big players, the mafia or whatever they want to call them always need to create a black swan, a speculation in order to move the large mass of money that many stopped earning, and others kept in small amounts were invested.
Graphics And Indicators Never Lie
However, one thing is clear to us: graphics never lie. Carrying out an objective analysis on the weekly chart of Bitcoin we can see the result that we had previously predicted. We are specifically talking about the new business cycle.
In line with our logic, the plan executed by the big players gave a good result and Bitcoin came to test one of the main loss lines. From there it was only a matter of time and the introduction of the black swan that we have previously said, to create the perfect correction, and thus get many investors to buy for half the price.
Now we basically have only one scenario from which many will benefit: the market rebound after making panic. With the above, and also, if prices begin to favor buyers, we will see in the coming months a new touch in that trend line of main decline.
This attempt to reach the maximum price history can even last a long time. The reason for the time will tell the recovery of the sentiment of the investors who were overwhelmed with the latest events.
Positive And Negative Scenarios
We were surprised with the pronouncement of the President of the United States declaring the nation on alert, after knowing the number of cases reported by the spread of the Coronavirus.
Then we laugh with the news that China is beginning to control the virus. This really confuses and makes us to think: will it be a war?
In any case, we are happy for Brazil, which after a long struggle of years for the reduction of the price of gasoline, is now a real fact. What is not clear is whether, after the fall in gasoline prices below 30%, it will benefit the nation or simply be another squirrel.
Contrary to this country, Colombia in its case, in two weeks the Colombian stock market lost the gains of a year as explained by El Espectador. The problem is so serious that now Banco de la Republica will have to intervene in the country’s economy.
Looking at the two points, it seems that Colombia was more impacted than Brazil. In personal terms, one country for another there are differences in knowledge and investment ratio. For one, at least 2% of the population already invests in the stock market; for the other, there is still a lot of financial education.
But the biggest problem was the great collapse of most exchanges when bitcoin fell more than 50% in one day. BitMEX, the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange house recorded total position settlements of USD $1.1 billion in the past 24 hours, according to Skew data. This is the highest amount for more than 18 months. A very surprising fact.
Data collected by The Block shows that the number of Compound closeouts reached its highest level, with the majority of these closeouts at ETH.
These data indicate that in the last 24 hours USD $4.19 million ETH and approximately USD $120,000 have been settled in the USDC stablecoin. Terribly scary.
In addition to the above, the Ethereum network had a large congestion. As reflected in network statistics, some 97,000 transactions have been slow to confirm on Ethereum, and gas prices have been rising, making transactions more expensive. At the same time, new transactions have had to wait up to 50 minutes for confirmation.
In addition, according to the analysis firm Glassnode, the average transaction price exceeded its maximum of 6 months ago, reaching USD $0.58.
However, and underneath all this speculation for many to buy cheaply, the news came out of nowhere that The Federal Reserve injects USD $1.5 trillion in an attempt to prevent the market turmoil. Additionally, later, other financial institutions joined the case. Very strange, don’t you think?
By way of personal opinion, all these facts contradict each other. On the one hand we have the United States asking for help. On the other, the Chinese controlling the situation and generating panic globally, but with large institutions injecting money and creating a false expectation of what was a great chaos made in recent days.
The truth is that there was a lot of money lost and most markets, including the cryptocurrency market, will take a few days and even months to recover. But seeing it well, on the side of our market, he was one of those who suffered the least, don’t you think?
Halvin On Uncalculated Risk
The short-term price perspective of bitcoin (BTC) is still, to say the least, uncertain, says moneytimes. Although the macroeconomic environment seems optimistic about bitcoin in the medium and long term, given the current decline in liquidity it is best to prepare for continued drops in short-term price pressure.
In just eight weeks, Bitcoin will undergo its third halving, in which the amount of new bitcoins issued to each block will be reduced in order to maintain the security of the Bitcoin blockchain. If the price remains constant, bitcoin’s security budget will drop by around 50% overnight.
This dynamic becomes very significant due to the global fall in financial markets. Bitcoin miners will not only face margin pressure from newly issued bitcoins, but also from a fall caused by the Coronavirus, which will amplify the effects of halving. If that is indeed the case, the effects for miners will be huge.
The graph above is worrying because of the inflated hashes rate (the rate at which a crypto mining device operates) as more miners enter the network.
The hashes rate has gone up almost three times in the last year, not only spurred by higher bitcoin prices, but also because of the imminent price increase during halving. An increasing number of miners may be competing for a much smaller pool of the industry’s broad profit.
Like any other halving, only the most profitable miners with the most capital invested will survive. Miners who have excessive leverage or are not competitive will face higher costs in the coming months.
Those who seek to add capacity as soon as possible to pursue a price increase in halving, at the expense of competitiveness, will be punished.
Litecoin (LTC) went through something similar last year. After the peak of the crypto markets in June 2019, Litecoin was brought down. Just as Bitcoin will still go, Litecoin went through a halving two months after the start of its fall. The consequences for miners were severe.
However, the drop in the hashes rate is not necessarily a sign of pessimism for the price of bitcoin. The price has no correlation with the hash rate and, unlike Litecoin miners, bitcoin miners will be able to mitigate the effects of this context through the proactive use of bitcoin derivatives.
But on the other hand, a collapse in the hash rate could end an optimistic bitcoin narrative. Bitcoin miners must prepare for the worst and bitcoiners must adjust their expectations when it comes to halving. The bitcoin halving narrative is dead, explained moneytimes.
Of all this speculation, the only thing that we can say that the true winners of the party were the social networks and all the yellow media that participated in this great strategy. But yes, we laugh a lot with the created memes. We really see that communities are very creative in these moments of panic.
A Week Of Terror And Panic
All in all, the cryptocurrency market begins a new week with a total capitalization of around USD $153 trillion and a feeling of extreme panic.
Personally, that capital scale really identifies a greater risk to place circulating money in investment. The recommendation would be to wait at least to get very close to approximately USD $200 billion.
The positive of the case is that the dominance of the dollar is surpassing the dominance of Bitcoin in relation to capitalization. What does that mean? Most investors are waiting for the best entry point or bounce point. In tune, capital is simply wild and on hold.
Bitcoin With No Reversal Signals
In the case of Bitcoin, what really set off the alarms was the break of 61% of the Fibonacci retraction line between approximately USD $9320. But what really brought the market to the extreme stage fright was the breakdown of EMAS (100, 200,300) and 70% of the Fibonacci retracement line between USD $6,661.
Now with the price positioned at approximately USD $5,320, Bitcoin is struggling to overcome a very strong resistance line and below the EMA200, and with the RSI targeting 40 points and the MACD in favor of even the bears.
Even in this scenario we do not have exact confirmation of a price reversal retraction. The mafia really fulfilled its mission: the collapse of the markets and markets in a few days. This also recalls the fact of the collapse of the twin towers on September 11, 2001.
What We Learned From All This?
After so many tragedies, we highly recommend using stop loss and stopping with the false story that BTC is for eternal hold. Bitcoin has to be sold yes. We know that many will oppose the opposite, but securing a knife can be very dangerous right now. So avoid death and use stop loss.
As a second measure, stop believing everything the media says. This time, it was very clear that the manipulation of the markets came more from the social news than from the institutions themselves. So whenever possible, use more flat screen televisions to better analyze more cryptocurrencies than watching local yellowing papers.
It is no longer a lie and we want everyone to know it as a third alert point. Great players and the mafia will always need a “Black Swan” to close an economic cycle and open a new one. The ugly duckling of history will generate losses and then millions of profits. It is a dangerous game where the feelings of the people are the main objective.
It is clear to us and as a fourth point, that speculation is the deadly weapon of the “Black Swan” and is used to generate a large movement of money and capital in a short period of time.
The sphere of the economy then moves not by capital or decay but by speculation in the financial markets because of investor sentiment. And worse still of the false promises of the economic institutions. The last crash is clear was caused when CME announced the closure of its operations at the Chicago headquarters.
After this euphoria and as a fifth point, the large-scale miners and before and after halving will be the ones who will lose the war the most. According to Poolin data and criptonoticias, the Antminer S9 is no longer profitable due to the electricity consumption of USD $ 0.35 per KW/h and a mining difficulty of 16.55T.
The deadliest reason is the event that is slated to happen on the Bitcoin network. Our dear Halving apparently could affect the profit performance of the miners. In our concept a new foam margin is being placed on the game table and we should be aware of that too.
As a sixth and final learning point, we can never say that technical analysis does not work. Several times we have alerted our subscribers to possible future scenarios and today we can say that we feel proud because of the 100% success we have made approximately 90% mistakes. We openly acknowledge that a learning curve that may be slow or fast is required in these markets.
What is clear to us, that both the traditional financial markets and within the cryptocurrency market there are certain surprises that can corrupt our technical analyzes overnight. But a priori study of economic theories and technical theories can help us to find strong supports, resistances and even a certain alarm system in cases of emergencies. We ourselves in the price of UDS $ 9120 for Bitcoin, we are already observing little trading interest with low capital inflow. Correction then, it was imminent.
That is why we say and emphasize that charts and indicators never lie and you must learn to interpret them. That and other things, are the main basis to make good profits and not fall into the mafia armadillas, the great players, the manipulation of the media and etc.
And a very important plus: let’s learn to be real traders, good investors and stop making simple speculations. So study, study long before putting your patronage or your most precious asset at risk. Therefore risk management is another key to avoid surprises.
See you in the next story! With love 💛 Rubika Ventures Team!
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