[Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice, do your own research. I am personally just starting to learn technical indicators and these posts should not be taken more than the musings of a newbie (ESPECIALLY AFTER SEEING MY HORRENDOUS RECORD)]
As the day wraps up, I wanted to go over BTC's price movement later into the day, and what caused me to lose out a sizable chunk from 2 crucial trades.
Mistake: Underestimating the Possibility of a Double Bottom
As stated in my previous post on BTC's price, I was bearish and ultimately liquidated my position at $45750. Looking back, that was nearly at the bottom of today's swing!
But that being said, I don't regret doing so at that time. I would have likely made the same trade on another day. The main problem - I underestimated the possibility of a double bottom.
The low near midnight yesterday and the lower low at around noon was initially suspicious, but what really sealed the deal (and where I could have entered myself again) was when the price rallied above $49642, the high of the one and only major peak within the bottom. Along with the price rally, the volume on the first low and subsequently less on the follow-down should have also been an indicator.
Mistake #2: FOMOing into Buying High
Seeing the double bottom much too late, I entered long into BTC again...at $51200. Yikes.
There was a small window of opportunity for me to sell at a break-even price or even profit a small amount, but I decided to keep holding (which is what I should have done in the first place!) Silly me.
There are two possibilities that I see - the price will continue moving up, as signaled by the double bottom, or the lower high and recent peak form the start of a Head and Shoulders pattern, reversing the trend.
It's too early to say what is the right call. The volume is present on the peak that signaled the double bottom to also be a left shoulder, but it's too early to call what way it's going. So, I'm fairly neutral with stop losses just in case something swings wildly while I sleep.
Current Position: Long @ 51200, 0.002 BTC (~$100)