CORONAVIRUS, 27 APR, 18: 53 5 108
Italy and the US will partially lift the quarantine. What to expect from financial markets
Is the removal of restrictions caused by the coronavirus a signal for economic recovery, and how will this affect the price of digital coins
From may 4, some restrictions imposed in connection with the coronavirus pandemic will be partially lifted in Italy, said the country's Prime Minister, stana Giuseppe Conte. According to him, bars and restaurants will be able to sell takeaway food, until then they were only allowed to deliver orders to the house, reports the BBC.
Conte added that Italians will be able to move between cities within the same province, visit relatives and earn money from parks. But all these measures will only be allowed for small groups, the Prime Minister said. He added that in this way it is planned to gradually open the country.
"Over the next weeks and months, we must lay the foundations of how to reopen our country. Therefore, we must follow all the recommendations and roll up our sleeves. And I can assure you that the government will make its contribution, " Conte said.
At the moment, there are about 198 thousand detected cases of Covid-19 virus infection in Italy. Almost 65 thousand people recovered, and more than 26 thousand died
USA and UK
A similar trend is observed in the United States. This week, the States of Georgia, Oklahoma, Alaska and South Carolina went for a partial easing of the quarantine. Their governors also called for further lifting of the restrictive measures next week. Before that, about 90% of the country's population remained in quarantine. In eight States governed by the Republican party, residents were not ordered to stay home.
Partial cancellation of the quarantine is also possible in the UK. Prime Minister Boris Johnson may make a statement this week. However, the restrictive measures will only be changed if it does not contradict the recommendations of doctors, the Daily Telegraph reports, citing the Prime Minister's entourage.
The United States is now the leader in the number of detected cases of infection with the new virus. In total, more than 980 thousand patients were diagnosed in the country. Of these, 109,000 were cured and 55,000 died. In the UK, the number of people infected with coronavirus has exceeded 150 thousand, more than 20 thousand died. A total of 3 million people have been diagnosed with COVID-19 worldwide.
Signal to invest
The coronavirus pandemic and subsequent quarantine caused the stock market to plummet, and the shares of most large and small companies fell in price. For example, the price of Boeing securities has fallen by 60% over the past three months - from $ 316 to the current level of $125. The capitalization of Delta Airlines, American Airlines Group and United Airlines Holdings fell by 60-70% over the same period.
Retail stocks also fell significantly. For example, the value of securities of one of the largest us retail chains, Macy's, fell in three months by 70%, from $16.4 to the current mark of $5.1. securities of the largest us clothing retailer GAP since the end of January fell by 60% - from $ 17.7 to $7.
Lifting the quarantine promises to increase consumer activity offline, at least in retail, United Traders analyst Fyodor Anashchenkov suggested. According to him, it was necessary to Buy shares of companies back in March, during the main downturn, but now there are good opportunities.
From Anaschenkov's point of view, when choosing securities for investment, you should look at those companies that can adapt to the habits of people who have changed during the quarantine period. The popularity of product delivery services, remote work platforms, and tools for digital manufacturing and online education will grow.
He added that it is likely to restore the position of manufacturers of sports equipment and clothing, travel accessories and the like. Also, after the removal of quarantine measures, the activity of taxi services and offline retailers will increase.
Leading QBF analyst Oleg Bogdanov agreed that it is possible to buy shares on the world and Russian markets at the end of March. But even in this case, you need to invest money, since the epidemic and quarantine will end in any case.
"As history shows, buying shares in the most unfavorable periods then brings the maximum profit. Russian stocks are a very good investment option. Many companies, especially in the energy sector, have adapted well. now is the time to buy them, especially given the high dividend yield, " Bogdanov said.
Bitcoin test
Temporarily, the fall in the stock market affected the crypto industry. On March 13, the price of bitcoin fell to $ 3,800, dropping more than 50% in a day. However, to date, the exchange rate of the coin has recovered to $ 7700, having recouped more than 90% of the fall. The result was even better demonstrated by some altcoins. For example, Ethereum and the Binance BNB exchange token have risen in price by 100% and 150%, respectively, in a month and a half.
Anashenkov continued that the crisis caused by the pandemic will be the main challenge for bitcoin. It will have to prove its role as" digital gold " during inflation. The analyst explained that currencies are depreciating due to the policy of States to issue "helicopter money", aimed at fighting the economic consequences of the pandemic.
"Many things indicate that bitcoin will successfully fulfill its role. Over the past few years, the volatility of BTC has decreased significantly. The volume of long positions in the futures market has increased. Network activity (the number of addresses, volume, and cost of transactions) increases. And in March, cryptocurrencies quickly played back a sharp drop, that is, they restored their value, although they were already buried again, " Anashchenkov shared.
He noted that other crypto currencies also have a strong side. For example, Ethereum is preparing for a large-scale upgrade to the second version of the network, because this one does not withstand the current load. Have Tezos, Chainlink and Brave tokens also there are factors that speak in favor of raising rates, said Anashenkov. He admitted that there is a possibility of a "bull rally" in the crypto market, but it will be more conscious than it was in 2017.
Bogdanov expressed a different opinion. He believes that cryptocurrency is now difficult to consider as an investment asset. The situation may change in the future, but this requires the adoption of laws on attracting capital to tokens and regulating the crypto market by Central banks, the analyst stressed.
Invest, but be aware of the risks
Experts agreed that the current crisis is an opportunity to invest in stocks, since after the removal of the quarantine, their value will recover. Despite the fact that the perfect moment to buy securities during the March downturn was missed, there are still "good opportunities".
Among the promising areas, experts identified product delivery services, platforms for remote work and distance learning, as well as Russian companies from the energy sector that pay high dividends. As demand recovers, shares of manufacturers of sports equipment and clothing, travel accessories and other things are also likely to grow in price. However, when investing in securities, keep in mind that there is a risk of bankruptcy of companies, and it will increase as the quarantine is extended.
Another potential risk is the cancellation of dividends. As stated today in an interview with Leehamnews, the head of the Boeing Corporation, Dave Calhoun, shareholders will not receive dividend payments for another 3-5 years, until Boeing restores its financial position. This is also possible with other companies, which will make their securities less attractive for investment and slow down the recovery in value.
Experts ' opinions on the cryptocurrency have diverged. On the one hand, the current crisis is an opportunity for bitcoin to prove itself as a protective asset. Its exchange rate is protected from inflation, which is inherent in national currencies due to the possibility of their unlimited issuance. But at the same time, the legal status of these digital assets has not yet been determined, which reduces their investment attractiveness.
"It will be easier for everyone by summer."What to do with savings
- Trump allowed the extension of the quarantine in the United States. Which cryptocurrencies benefit from this
- Than bitcoin is worse than Tezos. Explained in the Weiss rating
More information about cryptocurrencies can be found in our telegram channel RBC-Crypto.
Author: Dmitry Fomin.
TAGS: CORONAVIRUS, CRISIS, OPINIONS, BITCOIN
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CRISIS, 27 APR, 14: 39 30 384
"It will be easier for everyone by summer."What to do with savings
Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov expressed the opinion that in a month the situation with the coronavirus in Russia will be much better. Will this affect the price of shares and cryptocurrencies and is it worth investing in these assets back in April
Russia can reach a plateau in the incidence of coronavirus infection, that is, the number of cases will stop growing, said the press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov in an interview with the newspaper "Arguments and facts". He explained his assumption by comparing the situation in Russia with how the pandemic spread in Italy and Spain.
- Let's look at countries like Italy and Spain. The dynamics are more or less comparable. How long did the critical phase last? A month and a half maximum. And somewhere in the middle of may, we should also reach this plateau. And then, in the first month of summer, it will probably become easier, " Peskov suggested.
