Illuvium Staking Calculator Version 1.3 - What’s new and how to use it!

By Deraji | ILVFi | 6 Sep 2021


Disclaimer - my staking calculator is for entertainment and educational purposes only and is not financial advice.  Do your own research prior to investing.

I recently updated my staking calculator with strong collaboration and credit going to Lelahel#6058.  Thank him on the Illuvium Discord for his amazing work on this.  We added a new “Simplified Dashboard” and separate "Simplified Calculations" tab that offers some features people have been asking for since staking began.  Here’s the highlights:

  • Improved detail in predictive estimates
  • All-in-one assessment for people in the ILV or SLP pools, or even both at the same time!
  • Ability to model “what if” scenarios for increasing investment
  • Integrated Impermanent Loss calculation
  • Editable and more sought after estimates based on claim timing systems, including “claim every X ILV available” or “claim every X days”
  • Gas Optimized timing predictor - weighs the gas cost of claiming compared to anticipated value of compounding.

Since it’s not financial advice, and I know none of you would use it as such, there’s really two reasons people use these calculators. (1) Dream and look at big numbers, (2) better understand claim timing and differences in strategies as part of doing your own investment research.  The new update really helps with both of those.  Before we get into those, let’s discuss the limitations and risks of the calculator.

Watch-outs - Known risks/issues with the current version

  • Pool growth prediction is not a user editable cell (coming in the advanced version) -pool growth is estimated based on current data.

The two biggest factors that impact performance of Illuvium staking returns are the two biggest unknowns; (1) pool population over time, and (2) future ILV price prediction.  In my previous update, (still reflected in the more conservative ILV and SLP tabs) you can input your own expected pool population growth.  For now, we have an estimate for this in the new calculations based on recent staking data, and I’ll keep updating this over time, so check back regularly for further refinements.  The most recent two week period has seen an 11% growth in the SLP and 8% growth in the ILV (as of 9/5/21).  For people that like bigger numbers (and who doesn’t?), you’ll love this, as the new predictions show higher rewards than my previous models due to this modified growth modeling.

As for ILV price at 1 year and 3 years?  That’s up to you.  Definitely try adjusting the values in C18 and E18, as those have the biggest impact on your overall return.  To account for impermanent loss and improve accuracy of revenue distribution estimates for SLP stakers, you can also enter your predicted ETH prices.  Currently for the initial ETH price, the sheet will pull the price directly from Google Finance.  Impermanent loss will therefore be calculated from the day you enter data into the sheet, not necessarily when you joined the SLP.  If you want your actual impermanent loss data, use the "Imperm Loss" tab.

Extremely Important - Gas Fees!

As everyone using the Ethereum network knows, gas prices and transaction costs continue to rise.  This is becoming increasingly impactful on your long term investment performance.  Please enter your estimated average gas fee in C15.  For reference, claiming from the SLP a few weeks ago was costing me ~$50.   I claimed this past weekend at mid-80 Gwei after waiting for several days for lower gas.  My claim was $160.  Particularly at more frequent claiming strategies, be prepared for this impact on your investment.  Each predicted scenario includes a total gas cost (rows 8 and 20).  Claiming rewards daily for the entirety of yield farming at $160 per transaction would add an additional $165k to your investment just in gas fees!  The return on investment (ROI) for the scenarios includes this cost.

The Scenarios - Claim Every X ILV earned

I love what Lelahel did with this!  Similar to my hybrid scenarios previously, the new calculator has a built in ability to set different levels of ILV rewards available to claim.  Naturally, as rewards decrease, it will take longer for your account to accrue the set level of rewards.  This is a user editable field, and you can change the numbers in cells L2, M2, and N2 to different numbers of available rewards.  The calculator is limited claiming no more than once daily.  If you set this number too low, you will just default to daily claiming.  

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The Scenarios - Claim Every X Days

So far, I would guess the majority of people have a claiming calendar, claiming every day, week, two weeks, etc.  This is likely incorrect, as rewards will slow down over time, so as yield farming progresses and rewards decrease, you should extend your time between claims.  I will point out that the “every day” scenario is your theoretical maximum number of ILV rewards received.  Obviously, it also has the highest gas price.  Unless you have a huge investment, this will likely be your lowest ROI as your gas fee expenses will be tremendous, weighing down your overall return for not much gain over other scenarios.  

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When I look at the sheet, my eye is constantly drawn to cells O7 and O19 (claim daily 1 and 3 years Total ILV) for the theoretical max possible ILV earned.  I compare the other scenarios to this number to know how many ILV that I’m giving up by delaying claiming.  For example, in the scenario above, the difference in daily claiming and weekly claiming is less than 0.5 ILV.  However, my gas fees drop by almost $50k.  That means to earn that last 0.5 ILV in rewards, I’m essentially paying an extra $50k in ETH.  That only makes sense if you predict ILV price will exceed $100k in a year.  If that’s not what you think the price will be, please reconsider claiming daily.  Even if you do think that, evaluate a better way to use your $57k in ETH gas fees to accomplish this goal.  

For folks with smaller investments, definitely consider the scenario in column S - never claim.  While this will eliminate the compounding benefit, given the high gas costs, this may be the best thing for you to consider, particularly if the your projected interest earned never recovers your gas fees.  The next scenario will help clarify that further for you.

The Scenarios - Gas Optimized

If you’ve chatted with me, you’ll know I’m both conservative and cheap.  I absolutely hate wasting money on fees.  I love Amazon Prime free shipping and samples at Costco.  It’s with this “cheapness” in mind that I built a new “gas fee optimized” scenario.  In addition to the regular inputs, including your estimated average claim gas fee in C15, you also need to set your “max loss to gas” fee in cell E15.  This is a percentage, and it represents the maximum amount of your potential compounding interest rewards that you’re willing to “spend” on gas.  Set it to 100% and it will mean all benefit you would have received from compounding will go to gas (this would be bad - please don’t do that).  Set it to 0%, and you’ll never claim, as gas will always be a percentage of your expenses.  Personally, I play around with this and compare to the other scenarios.  My favorite aspect is that this scenario directly compares the two things you should care about when claiming - how much is gas, and how much do I expect to earn in compounding interest?  

There are two other exciting things about this scenario model! (Did I mention how big a nerd that I am?) First, it will give you an exact date (cell E3) when you should claim next.  If you’re more adventurous and choose to venture into the calculation tab itself, go to column AG of the Simplified Calculations. Wherever there is a “Y”, those are the “optimal” dates to claim based on your permissible gas fee percentage and expected earned interest.  In my opinion, this is as close as you can get to optimizing your claim value.  Note - the biggest factor that controls this cell is again the predicted future ILV price.  If you set the future ILV super high, your should claim more often, as your gas fees are smaller relative to future value.  It’s up to you!  With great power comes great responsibility, or something like that.

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VIDEO COMING SOON!

Integrated Impermanent Loss Calculation

Since you’re entering current and predicted ETH and ILV values, we added an impermanent loss calculator in cells C28 and C29 for 1 year and 3 year estimates.  It also calculates how many of each token your SLP is likely to convert into when you sell.  These ILV values are also used in the predicted revenue distribution cells.  One limitation with this version - unlike my "Imperm Loss" tab, Sushi pool fees are ignored for now.  Your likely SLP value over time would be slightly higher than what is shown.

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Quick Example and cell-by-cell walk through

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First, to create your own version, click on File => Make A Copy.  This will give you an editable version of the calculator.  Check back regularly as I will continue updating the core sheet.  I will not share editing rights with anyone to keep the calculations as accurate as possible and avoid someone changing something they shouldn't.

C3 is the date you want to begin your model.  (Just updated! This will now also set the correct expected ILV rewards for each pool regardless of start date)

E3 is the next claim date projected by the “gas optimized” scenario.  This will not be accurate until the rest of your information is entered.

For C5 through D6, enter the current pool information, including the token prices and Total Value Locked for each pool.  Links are provided to the Illuvium Dashboard and Zerion.io page with the current SLP token price.  These will be used to calculate APY and also to project future pool growth.

In the Your Tokens section, do the obvious thing, and enter your current number of tokens!  There is a space for all four options (1) your number of SLP, (2) your staked ILV, (3) your pending ILV rewards, and even (4) your claimed sILV.  If you are staked for a period less than 52 weeks, adjust the numbers in E8 and E9 to reflect your staking weight.  Note: this is a limitation - if you already have claimed ILV rewards and ILV staked at a weight less than 2, we cannot accommodate that at this time.  However, the calculator will apply a 2x weight to future ILV rewards while keeping your initial ILV staked at the appropriate weight.  Unclaimed rewards will behave as you’d expect; the more you have right now, the sooner most scenarios will tell you to claim.  sILV is just for fun, and is reflected in your total value (E22), but not in your future earnings since it is not eligible for rewards or rev dis.

The ILV and ETH per SLP are calculations to show how many of each SLP token is worth today.  The “Your ILV in the SLP pool” lets you know your current share of ILV.  This is relevant to rev dis and voting for the Illuvinati Council.

Predictions is a hugely impactful section, and it’s all up to you - what do you think ILV and ETH will be worth in a year?  What will they be worth in 3 years?  How much revenue distribution to you expect per ILV per month in the future?  There are placeholder values here, but you need to look into your crystal ball to see what the future holds.  Just note - these are the most important cells to determine future value.

Your investment lets you see your performance by including your initial investment amount.  Rentability was an addition from Lelahel that I wasn’t familiar with, and I added a link to a definition.  It’s all about your current value relative to your initial investment.  Current value of all your SLP and ILV is shown in E22.

Another new feature is the ability to model “what if you added more” to either pool.  Just add how much more (in USD) you want to add to the SLP, ILV pool, or both and see how that changes future value.  This does not include staking fees.

The final section is all calculations and shows the impact of impermanent (divergence) loss.  This uses your price predictions for ILV and ETH compared to today’s prices.  It also calculates how many of each token you can expect to receive upon selling your SLP based on IL.

The Scenarios Results

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First, the Scenario Results section is divided in two identical tables - estimates for 1 year (top), and estimates for 3 years (i.e. the end of yield farming) on the bottom.  We reviewed much of this earlier, but to break down what is calculated, each scenario generates a number of potential reward ILV, and attributes them to where they came from, the SLP or the ILV pool.  Those values are in rows 5, 6, 17, and 18.  

From an editability standpoint, you can adjust the numbers in L2 through N2 to try different numbers of “claim every X ILV earned” scenarios.  For O2 through R2, you can try different “claim every X days” scenarios.  In both cases, X is the value to put in row 2.  I encourage you to leave “Claim Daily” alone as your maximum possible ILV earned, and assess the difference in ILV earned compared to gas fees to determine if the extra ILV earned is worth it.

That brings me to the rows that matter most to me - Total ILV.  As I shared before, what I really care about is getting an optimal number of ILV tokens and enjoying the potential long term success of Illuvium.  My eyes immediately compare the results for the different scenarios in rows 7 (1 year) and 19 (3 years).  This, combined with your predicted ILV price and gas fees are the real value of your investment.

We discussed gas fees earlier, and this cell multiplies the number of claims involved in each scenario by the average gas fee you entered.  Net value takes your expected value for each scenario and subtracts out your gas fees.  ROI (return on investment) takes your return compared to your investment (including your initial investment plus gas fees).  

Rev Dis estimates your expected monthly and annual revenue, accounting for your total ILV owned and multiplying by the rev dis estimates that you included.  This does not consider token weighting at this time.

 

That’s it!  We still have a number of other things we’re working on, so if there’s something else you’d like to see, send either of us (Deraji#0798 or Lelahel#6058) a message on Discord.  Also, please share your gratitude with Lelahel, as he did some amazing work to improve on my previous versions, with some additional features already planned for the future. As he told me while working on this, the

“only thing I wanted is to help you and the community.” - Lelahel

Please share my love and appreciation with him if you enjoyed our work, and pay it forward by keeping the Illuvium community positive, helpful, and optimistic!  If you do want to support this ongoing work financially, I’ve included a crypto address for tips, and I’ll make sure these are split between us.  

Thanks as always for reading, and please share your feedback and comments.  Thanks for your ongoing support of my writing!

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Deraji
Deraji

Crypto curious thinker, amateur economist, geriatric millennial gamer passionate about Illuvium. Happy to share my economic and financial assessment of this unique blockchain NFT Play-to-Earn project. patreon.com/ilvfi


ILVFi
ILVFi

ILVFI focuses on the upcoming P2E game, Illuvium, the first proposed AAA-quality video game based on blockchain technology and NFT ownership. We'll focus on both the game play, as well as the in-game and ILV governance token economics.

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