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My Greatest Crypto Investor Regret And The Danger of Hindsight

By Aaron221 | EXIT HOLD | 2 Mar 2021


I remember the first time I watched bitcoin pump from $5 to $100. I'd been watching the burgeoning crypto markets with passing interest at the time. Mostly as a curiosity. It seemed pretty silly to get involved with this magic internet money at the time whose only practical use at the time was buying weed off the Deep Web. And since I tend towards legal drugs, I didn't really pay it much attention other than with awe that people were dumping real world money dollars into this nebulous concept of digital cash.

It all seemed alien at the time and getting involved seemed like more trouble than it was worth. Of course, I say this as someone who is loathe to even bother logging into their Spotify account to hear new music. If it's not easily accessible through YouTube, it might as well not exist as far as I'm concerned.

So it was too much work then. Even when bitcoin pumped to $20,000 I still had a difficult time convincing myself it was a good investment. Sure, it's worth tens of thousands of dollars now, but what happens if the price bottoms out? Which, sure enough, it did. Eventually it flatlined somewhere between $4-9000 until recently when it pumped to just under $60,000.

Even now, having experienced bitcoin's rise first hand and deciding to not buy myself thousands of bitcoin when I could afford to do so, may seem silly in hindsight. And occasionally I do think about how that was an opportunity that I missed out on. Even if I'd just purchased 5 or 10 bitcoin when they'd been at $5, I could have made a small fortune. If only!

And I hear that a lot in the investing space. Not just specifically with regard to bitcoin or Ethereum but Tesla or Apple or Microsoft or any investment that has made significant gains in the past 20-30 years. Even recently I found myself thinking it when I saw Gamestop stock go from $20 to nearly $400. If only I had bought in soon enough, I could have made a lot of money. And now, it's too late.

But I think that mindset can be dangerous when it comes to investing. Of course, most investments out there are going to come with some risk. Relatively safer investments will also see losses from time to time even if their average may trend upwards over time.

Of course, that's in the traditional investment space. The crypto space is a much greater unknown. And in that unknown, there will be people looking to take bigger risks for potentially even greater reward. Because who among us wants to miss out on The Next Bitcoin? I know I certainly don't. Not when there are beaches that I could be drinking on.

And with bitcoin's now seemingly unshakable place in the global economy, it can be easy to forget that the crypto space is still largely a speculative market. But with that stability comes the willingness to leverage greater risk - even if that risk may be completely unjustified. In some ways, that may be true. After all, most altcoins are so heavily tethered to the value of bitcoin or Ethereum that even after something like an SEC lawsuit may not be enough to truly destabilize the coin as a means of exchange. Its value remains intrinsic to the greater crypto community as a whole.

Refusing to buy bitcoin may seem like a stupid decision, in retrospect. And it's easy to make those sorts of judgment calls against our actions after we have made our decisions. But that is a short sighted view when it comes to investing. Because these are the sorts of calls that we really could have only anticipated with some sort of foresight. Sure, it may have been a bad call, but you only know that it was a bad call now.

Despite what some people may have you believe, there was no way for you to predict otherwise. Even as I am certain the crypto market is going to expand into the future, I cannot guarantee that at all. We may have predictors that lead us to that conclusion, but nobody can promise you what the future is going to be like. And if they are, chances are pretty good they're just trying to sell you something.

This is where hindsight can be dangerous, particularly in the crypto space. It's easy to see a banner ad that states "our members have received 484% ROI over the past 15 months" and unquestionably think you will be able to benefit from that. After all, if you'd watched bitcoin see a rise from $100 to $60,000, that ROI may appear not only achievable, but perfectly reasonable so it's time to YOLO.

And maybe it is reasonable. But when dealing with this newly emerging market, we still need to be cautious. And it may not be fun or exciting needing to performing your due diligence. But I can assure you that missing out buying Bitcoin at $4000 feels infinitely better than buying BitConnect Coin at $300.

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