Bitcoin State Of The Market (3/27/20)
Bitcoin State Of The Market (3/27/20)

By mduchow | EW Price analysis | 27 Mar 2020


There are far more forces at play here than just Whales and Baby Whales pushing the market around. The infusion of trillions of dollars into the American Economy has unknown affects. The last trillion they pumped in for Bond Liquidity was immediately rejected by investors and the market continued to tank. Again, different markets but some correlation. What does this mean for our buddy Bitcoin? Well, we have ZERO data to even research as this has never been done to this magnitude before in history.

We had a Mt. Gox creditors meeting earlier this week which could potentially spark another Plus Token sell off going into this weekend/early next week. Again, these are historical times and count your blessings that you can even witness them first hand as the stories you can tell 10 years from now will trump nearly anything younger traders would have ever witnessed.

If FA didn’t exist and we completely ignore the outside world and influences, then we stick to the charts and the Technicals of said chart. The Charts show a Break and Close of the local 382 with a retest for confirmed Support flip. Earlier this week we Broke and closed the 20 DMA as well. So far we've shown good support on top of it.   All eyes are watching sideways movement, with the slightest bullish/bearish indication can send the market into action. Current price action shows a violation of the 20 DMA but support has been found nonetheless, at least for now. This is a small range to play but remember that the local highs have been swept and our newly flipped support has been tested. One of these will eventually break but at the moment it’s a game of tug-o-war.


Areas of Interest:

SUPPORT:

Moving averages:

Daily:

  • 20 DMA = $6670
  • 9 DEMA = $6302

  Weekly:

  • 200 WMA = $5560
  • 350 WEMA = $3911  
  • 350 WMA = $3344

Trend Fibonacci Extensions/Retracements:

Uptrend:

  • Local Uptrend Anchor 1 = $6430
  • Local Uptrend 1.13 = $5897
  • Local Uptrend 1.272 = $5316
  • Local uptrend 1.41 = $4752 
  • Local Uptrend 1.618 = $3900

  Downtrend:

  • Local Downtrend 382 = $6403
  • Local Downtrend 236 = $5430
  • Retrace 236 = $6220
  • Retest Structure Breakout = $4200

Swing trade:

  • PB 786 = $5427
  • PB 886 = $4353
  • 2018 Low = $3128

RESISTANCE:

Moving Averages:

Daily:

  • 50 DMA = $8345
  • 200 DMA = $8346
  • 350 DMA = $8612

Trend Fibonacci Extensions/Retracements:

Uptrend:

  • Local Uptrend 886 = $6896
  • Local Uptrend 618 = $7993

Downtrend:

  • Local Downtrend 50 = $7190
  • Local Downtrend 618 = $7976

Swing Trade:

  • ATH 236 = $7084
  • PB 618 = $7231
  • Retrace 382 = $7681
  • PB 50 = $8498

CME:

CME Trading Times:

OPEN – Sunday 6pm EST

CLOSE – Friday 4pm EST

Last Friday Close = $6210

Current Sunday Open = $6060

Current Local Gap = $6210 – $6060

UP:

  • 1st Gap Up = $8280 – $9165 – Partial Fill
  • 2nd Gap Up = $10,075 – $10,225 – Partial Fill
  • 3rd Gap Up = $11,695 – $11,945 – Partial Fill
  • 4th Gap Up = $16,455 – $16,590 – Partial Fill 

DOWN:

  • 1st Gap Down = $6395 – $6300
  • 2nd Gap Down = $3595 – $3565
  • 3rd Gap Down = $3165 – $3145

 

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351665157-2aad897ca627cd964fcc9d314c77e2c47388865b64ff581b867c5dea6e276694.png


Elliottwave:

"Having knowledge but lacking the power to express it clearly, is no better than never having any ideas at all." -Pericles

This quote is in a book I'm reading and I wanted to share it because it expresses just how important clarity is. As a trader you need clarity with your strategy. If you cannot tell me in a simple sentence how you enter and exit the market consistently and what your success rate is doing that, then you don't have a strategy. If you don't have a strategy, then you are not a trader, just a gambler. Simple as that.

I do not think the bottom is in. This is all looking EXTREMELY corrective.

351665157-7736c5577aa1305c55d160cdea62a17dee6a7bf757e21e8478992d0b912666f1.png

BTC/USD:

Targets: $8,176.74-$8,843.17

351665157-1971827bff2d361712315b71c963c797a1df5a82438312631a8c6db21e7c145b.png

ETH/USD:

Targets: $169.32-$199.82

351665157-86bf4f1a5d9d465cb2dc576acec28481665616dca1dbe0ad99f88d9b91aefcc1.png

LTC/USD:

Targets: $49.41-$58.60

THANKS FOR READING!



mduchow
mduchow

21 y/o Economics major at the University of Northwestern, Chicago; Elliotician; Crypto Enthusiast; Blockchain advocate; Suspect of all things centralized


EW Price analysis
EW Price analysis

Price analysis from my perspective using Eliottwave

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