Bitcoin Nears Bottom Or Bust

By mduchow | EW Price analysis | 12 May 2022

Bearish Sentiment runs rampant across all equity markets - rightfully so, given the economic uncertainty around the globe at the present moment. When the market takes a downturn, it is both easy to complain while it is convenient to hope that everything will recover soon. However, equipping yourself with the proper tools as well as the knowledge of how to apply them can help guide you through troubling times as well as identify the critical areas which you need to worry about. 


In my future analysis since returning, I plan to include a much larger list of alt coins much more in depth. However, for right now the primary focus will be on the driver of the Cryptocurrency Markets - Bitcoin. Hopefully this can provide some clarity to anyone feeling hopeless in this, although very predictable, sharp downturn.




Although things look bad right now, structurally, Bitcoin is nearly completed with its macro retracement. Maintaining congruency in the structure, indicates that Bitcoin will finish this correction between June 9, 2022 - July 29, 2022


If you don’t understand Time Analysis, no worries, I plan to cover it extensively in a future blog post. My time analysis strategy has tracked Bitcoin almost perfectly for the last 2 years, including the most recent downturn that I had forecasted as early as October of 2021 - check out my TradingView page if you’re interested in tools like this. 

Bitcoin Time Analysis

Now that we have a time window in place, let’s narrow down some targets. It’s always important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results, however, Bitcoin is a remarkably consistent asset when following a trend. 

Bitcoin Macro Support

Historically, Bitcoin has always had a strong affinity for the .618 - .786 Fibonacci channel and has consistently retraced and found support locally in these areas following every historical Bull Run. This gives us a pretty wide, but confident, range where Bitcoin is likely to find very strong support. This range is from: $18,040 as our most critical line of support as well as $29,167 - or where we have been ranging right now. I do not think it is a guarantee that Bitcoin will breach below $20,000 again, but being realistic, there’s a relatively high probability that it will briefly. 

The Macro .618 - .786 Fibonacci Channel has beautiful confluence with the local levels of Fibonacci support. Following the historic trend, Bitcoin should not break and close below $17,639


Looking at momentum, Bitcoin is very much under Bearish control in a sellers market. Unfortunately, a sellers market means the price will have to continue lower before buyers are willing to step in. If you are interested in learning how to read momentum, I wrote the code for an indicator, as well as explained the various complexities of market momentum and market control


Cryptocurrencies generally are trending Bearish across the board at the moment. 



Fortunately, there is plenty of money to be made in the defi space right now providing liquidity. Here are the top 60 LPs ranked by volume.



I look forward to going more in depth across the market in another analysis shortly. If you enjoyed it, thank you for the support. I look forward to sharing my analysis here again following this WILD two years of a market. If there are any particular coins you’d like me to look at please don’t hesitate to ask. If that’s all, take care, and best of luck!


Thanks for reading!



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Nothing if not consistent

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