Revisiting the Mathematics of Rollercoin
If You Think This Is Too Technical, You Should Hear My Take on Skyrim...

Revisiting the Mathematics of Rollercoin


DISCLAIMER 1:

I adjusted the end-post calculations on 2021-03-03 01:50sm after alert reader F4r1s highlighted a flaw in my calculations. I regret my error.

DISCLAIMER 2:

The links to the crypto sites in this article are affiliate links. Furthermore, I use shorte.st to shorten hyperlinks. I get a few cents when users click the links, and I get rewarded if users register using these links. However, my personal experiences with these sites have been beneficial enough that I can promote them without feeling like a shill.

I will gladly provide clean links upon request.


On 2020-06-24, I wrote a (now-unpublished) blog post about how Rollercoin would let me reach a break-even point in about 42 years.

This could be problematic since I am currently 44 years old. Naturally, I give Rollercoin a low priority in my cryptocurrency strategy.

Well, much has changed in seven months, so I decided to re-run the numbers.


WHAT A DIFFERENCE SEVEN MONTHS MAKES

Let's start with the updates:

THE IMPROVEMENTS

  • Players can now mine Rollercoin tokens (RLT) with their mining power.
  • The Rollercoin staff has tied RLT to USDT. The Rollercoin staff equates RLT as the equivalent of $1, applicable for in-game purchases including high-grade miners and additional rooms.
  • Players can exchange USDT for RLT at a one-to-one exchange.
  • There are far more options for mining units. Seven months ago, the most powerful mining unit was the Dream Demolisher, which added 70 TH of permanent mining power at a one-time cost of 110 RLT. Currently, the most powerful mining unit is the El Monstro, which adds 110 TH of permanent mining power at a one-time cost of 99 RLT.
  • Rollercoin has occasional sales which lower the costs of mining units.
  • Rollercoin offers limited-time mining units. The last such mining unit was the Santa Sleigh, adding 160 TH of permanent mining power at a one-time cost of 99 RLT.

THE DRAWBACKS

  • Players must recharge their electricity to keep their mining rigs running. Fortunately, clicking a button is all that is required to recharge electricity. However, electricity will completely deplete in five days, which can be a problem for players who will be offline for a week or longer.
  • Currently, RLT are not exchangeable or withdrawable.
  • Purchasing RLT with DOGE costs $1.17 per each RLT.
  • Purchasing RLT with BTC or ETH costs $1.18 per each RLT.
  • The minimum deposit for USDT is 100 tokens. Rollercoin warns users that attempting to deposit less than 100 USDT will lead to the complete loss of the funds.

CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS WITH A HAMPSTER BALL

Trigger Warning: Mathematics

My current mining power -- a combination of mining units and rewards for playing games -- is 246.241 TH/s. This power grants me 0.000426 RLT per block (a block is how Rollercoin awards currency to players). This means that 1 TH/s earns roughly 0.00000173 RLT per block (the scientific notation value is 1.73001246746074e-6).

The El Monstro is currently the most powerful mining unit available, granting 110 TH/s of permanent mining power. One El Monstro will yield roughly 0.0001903 RLT per block (the scientific notation value is 1.903013714206814e-4).

The average time between blocks is 5 minutes and 9 seconds. Since this is an average, I'll use both a slightly pessimistic estimate of 6 minutes between blocks and a highly pessimistic estimate of 10 minutes between blocks. I'd rather err on the side of underestimating income than overestimating it. With these assumptions, one full day has between 144 and 240 blocks.

This means that one El Monstro generates between 0.027403 and 0.045672 RLT per day. Considering that one El Monstro costs 99 RLT, that means that it will take between 2,167 days (5 years, 11 months, and 7 days) and 3,613 days (9 years, 10 months, and 22 days) to break even.

So... how much will it cost to fill all four rooms with El Mosntros?

The first room that players get can hold 12 racks. A rack that can hold 8 cells costs 300 satoshis, which is worth roughly $0.142779 USD as of 2021-03-02 01:40pm PST. Players can unlock three more rooms for 35 RLT per room. Each additional room can hold 18 racks.

Currently, maxing out all four rooms would involve:

  • Unlocking all three additional rooms, which costs 105 RLT ($105).
  • Purchasing 66 8-cell racks, which costs 0.000198 BTC ($9.40).
  • Purchasing 264 El Monstro mining units, which costs 26,136 RLT ($26,136)

Maxing out all four rooms will cost $26,250.40. This does not include the fees associated with purchasing USDT, BTC, ETH, or DOGE, nor does it include the fees associated with moving the cryptocurrencies to Rollercoin. And this does not include the markups associated with buying RLT with BTC, ETH, or DOGE.

When will this investment pay for itself?

Before I continue, I want to define the prices of BTC, ETH, and DOGE as of 2021-03-02 around 02:00pm PST:

  • 1 BTC is worth $47,593.04.
  • 1 ETH is worth $1,473.18.
  • 1 DOGE is worth $0.050131.

Again, I'm going to use two sets of metrics. The happy-path assumption is that the Rollercoin team will treat all four currencies equally; that is to say that the power to generate 1 RLT per block would also generate $1 in BTC, ETH, or DOGE. The more pessimistic assumption is that the markups associated with converting BTC, ETH, and DOGE to RLT apply to mining these cryptocurrencies as well (17% for DOGE, and 18% for BTC and ETH).

One El Monstro generates between 0.027403 and 0.045672 RLT per day. That means that 264 El Monstros would generate between 7.234392 and 12.057408 RLT per day. Without the markups, this would yield equivalent amounts of BTC, ETH, DOGE, or some combination of the three (players can split their mining power between BTC, ETH, DOGE, and RLT, though RLT would be mostly useless to a player with four maxed-out rooms). With the markups associated with buying RLT, miners would earn between $6.00454536 and $10.00764864 per day with their power routed 100% on DOGE. Miners with their power routed 100% to BTC, ETH, or a combination of both would earn between $5.93220144 and $9.88707456 per day.

With that, the break-even points would be roughly:

  • Any cryptocurrency, 6-minute blocks, no markup: 2,178 days (5 years, 11 months, 18 days)
  • Any cryptocurrency, 10-minute blocks, no markup: 3,629 days (9 years, 11 months, 8 days)
  • DOGE, 6-minute blocks, 17% markup: 2,624 days (7 years, 2 months, 8 days)
  • DOGE, 10-minute blocks, 17% markup: 4,372 days (11 years, 11 months, 20 days)
  • BTC and/or ETH, 6-minute blocks, 18% markup: 2,656 days (7 years, 3 months, 9 days)
  • BTC and/or ETH, 10-minute blocks, 18% markup: 4,426 days (12 years, 1 month, 12 days)

...sooooo...

...who's ready to play the looooong game?


HOW MY CALCULATIONS CAN BE WRONG, AND HOW THAT'S GOOD NEWS FOR ROLLERCOIN PLAYERS

When I write anything related to currency, I purposefully err on the side of rounding down and using deflated figures. This is not just because I believe that Sturgeon and Murphy were optimists. If an investment outperforms my calculations, I may look foolish (despite the disclaimers). However, if an investment underperforms or turns out to be a scam, then I invoke well-deserved scorn. Depending on the magnitude of the losses involved, I may even expose myself and Publish0x to legal repercussions.

So it's highly likely that players won't need to spend $26,250.40 out of pocket to max out all four rooms, and it probably won't take over 12 years to break even. The calculations above assumed the "worst-case" scenario, where a player did nothing to defray upgrade costs or take advantage of Rollercoin's mechanics to boost income and lower costs.

Factors that can lessen the break-even point include:

  • Players can use their mining power to mine RLT.
    • One El Monstro generates between 0.027403 and 0.045672 RLT per day, which means that a player can buy the next El Monstro in between 2,167 days (5 years, 11 months, and 7 days) and 3,613 days (9 years, 10 months, and 22 days) if the player does nothing.
    • With two El Monstros, the wait for the third drops to between 1,083 days (2 years, 11 months, and 19 days) and 1,806 days (4 years, 11 months, and 11 days).
    • Players who fill their first room with 48 El Monstros can wait between 46 and 76 days to buy their next El Monstro.
    • Players who fill the first and second rooms with 120 El Monstros can buy their 121st El Monstro in between 18 and 31 days.
    • Players who fill the first three rooms with 192 El Monstros can buy their 193rd El Monstro in between 12 and 19 days.
    • Did you make it to 263 El Monstros only to run short of pocket money? No problem. You can buy the final El Monstro in between 9 and 14 days.
  • Rollercoin has occasional sales as well as limited-edition miners. Taking advantage of these sales and promotions can significantly reduce the amount of up-front costs that players spend, as well as the time to break-even. Remember when I mentioned the Santa Sleigh? If you were lucky enough to buy 264 of them, you're earning 0.0730752 RLT per block. Your worst-case scenario to break-even drops to 3,043 days (which saves you 3 years, 9 months, and 14 days). Your best-case scenario to break even drops to 1,496 days (which saves you 1 year, 10 months, and 13 days).
  • Playing games on Rollercoin awards temporary increases in mining power. When a character clicks the "Gain Power" button at the end of a game, Rollercoin awards 1 GH/s (0.001 TH/s) per point. Depending on the game and difficulty level, scores can range from 0 (if you're horribly unlucky and click "Gain Power" instead of "Restart") and 1.6 TH/s per game. Game power is revoked when a player does not play at least one game per 24 hours, and game power can last 1, 3, 5, or 7 days. Game power is not a stable solution, but an idle afternoon can grant a significant boost to players with few or no mining units.
  • I'm operating under the assumption that the values of BTC, ETH, and DOGE remain relatively static, which can fairly described as a LOL-worthy assumption. However, I'd rather err on the side of not assuming the status quo than guess that a specific token will either become a trash token or the equivalent of a Powerball jackpot. If DOGE surges to match the value of modern-day ETH, then those 100 DOGE that you purchased last week will max out all four rooms with roughly $120,000 left over. As for me, I'm going to stick to mining RLT and researching USDT.
  • I make quite a few assumptions in my calculations. I specify the ones about which I am aware -- such as the time between blocks and any fees associated with mining non-RLT tokens. When someone can provide information that fills these knowledge gaps, I'll update my calculations accordingly.

In short, the changes that Rollercoin implemented reduced the break-even point by between 30 and 37 years. That is one hell of an upgrade. This makes Rollercoin a much-better investment...

...though there are alternatives. Instead of sending 100 USDT to Rollercoin, I could try one of these investments instead:

  • I may have mentioned Coinseed one or two or 7,650 times. With my current portfolio, $101 would buy $12.50 in PAXG, BTC, ETH, USDC, BCC, DASH, XRP, and LTC. I could then lock the non-PAXG currencies for 360 days for an estimated return of $2.99. The $12.50 in PAXG acts as an anchor since PAXG is a stablecoin tied to gold.
  • 0.00208791 BTC deposited in FreeBitco.in will generate 0.00008518 BTC in a year.
  • $100 deposited in Cointiply will generate $5.00 in a year.
  • $100 of USDT, when sent to BlockFi, will generate $9.30 in a year.
  • $100 of USDT, when sent to CoinLoan, will generate $10.30 in a year.

This is not to say that Rollercoin is bad. There is a solid case to be made that time spent on Rollercoin is far more productive than time spent on Twitter, on Discord, at the El Cortez, etc. But if your goal is to get the highest ROI, Rollercoin is not where you should be diverting your crypto cash.

Dr. Hamster forgive me if I'm wrong.


LoonyLiberal
LoonyLiberal

I have 15 years of experience as a software tester. I've been writing off-and-on for 28 years. I adapt quickly to new technologies and new methodologies. And I believe that humor is the most important social skill.


Dollars and Nonsense
Dollars and Nonsense

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