Buy the Fact

By Cryptowido | Cryptowido | 19 Feb 2023


To change, I will place my little disclaimer at the beginning of the post, instead of placing it at the end of the post as I usually do.

I am just sharing what I'm doing in this crypto adventure. I have no advice to give, no real certainty about the future.

This is not investment advice.
And the possibility that I'm wrong is also to be taken into account.
The crypto market is young, volatility is high, do your own research and measure the risks before making a decision.

Surely you know the saying : Buy the Rumor and Sell the News.
It is a practice, a trap that is the misfortune of many people.

But if you really believe in Bitcoin, Blockchain technology.
In the fact that it was Bitcoin that opened the door to new possibilities.
As I have written in previous post : Bitcoin is a real and historical fact.
And this fact is of very great importance for Bitcoin to become a reserve asset.

I wrote this post : Bitcoin Story.
To sum up : Bitcoin is the origin of the Blockchain universe as we know it today.

This is why there won't really be any new crypto that could become the new Bitcoin in the future.
Because it would in fact be necessary to return to the past to rewrite history.
Good Luck !

I'm not saying Bitcoin can't be replaced in the future by some fantastic new technology.
Yes fantastic, because it is a fantasy that I would call bizarre : already wanting to replace Bitcoin.
I believe that if a new "crypto" were to replace Bitcoin, then the new technology would render all Blockchains we currently know obsolete.
Because most likely we would have to deal with some disruptive technology that would kill our current cryptos.

So I say (and I do) : Buy the Fact.
Or even should I say : Buy a REAL Fact.




In a few words, the Bitcoin XT aimed to increase the block size to 8 MB. A story that began in 2014.
And the August 1, 2017 Bitcoin Cash Hard Fork (block: 478558) also aimed to increase the block size to increase the number of transactions.
And Bitcoin SV is a Hard Fork of BCH on November 15, 2018 (block 556766).
I am skipping the historical details to point out that the block size increase event was most likely priced by the market in August 2015 as can be seen in the previous screenshot.


Even though the precise date of the Halving 2020 was not known, a relatively precise estimate was given and updated.


In these four screenshots, it is very interesting to observe the reaction of Bitcoin about a year before the scheduled and actual event : HALVING.

Even negative news, as long as it is not catastrophic, should not impact the strength of the bull rally.
It's more interesting for the market to do mass FOMO.
And by mass, I mean the relatively poor people, that is to say me, possibly you and therefore us.

But it's also a market based on supply and demand, if we place ourselves massively at given prices and this information is known, there will always be people to place purchase orders a little higher.
Either to be sure to enter the market for people who have a small budget like me and maybe you too.
Either to prevent the masses from buying at low prices.

Even the Covid episode could not break through the bottom of the previous bear market.
I'm not saying we won't fall below $15,473.
I am simply saying that we need an event stronger than the Covid.
But not catastrophic.

I have enough certainties not to doubt and to buy in the low zone.
But I accept the risk of losing my capital invested in cryptos or other risky assets (like stocks).
And I have no illusions, if an apocalyptic event were to occur, I certainly wouldn't have time to sell my risky assets.
I am smaller than a micro dust in the immensity of the financial markets. And in that case, I wouldn't even try to sell.
Because the future is uncertain and it is this uncertainty that makes the crypto market interesting in many ways.
And mainly the return on investment because Bitcoin is really in my opinion an opportunity to be seized.

The further back in the history of Bitcoin, the more uncertain Bitcoin's future was : The higher the risks, the higher the potential gains can become.

A Third World War is a very risky event.
Cryptos are likely to become the least of our worries if we have to deal with catastrophic and apocalyptic events.
Although it can be estimated that the risk of Bitcoin and Cryptos disappearing overnight is low or even extremely low.
Because Blockchain technology is a really powerful tool that brings value to Internet Technology.

However, this risk is very real.
The uncertainty of the future is real.

I do not consider myself a Bitcoin Maximalist.
But it is necessary to know how to recognize and admit what is True and Real.
If you started your crypto adventure ignoring Bitcoin.
Frankly, I do not understand.

Because it was Bitcoin that helped me during this bear market to time my custom DCA.
I had no specific price target, only price zones : between 20k and 25k - 15k and 20k - 10k and 15k.
I didn't care about the value of Bitcoin.
What I really needed was the time indicator.

In general, the time factor is very difficult to speculate in the financial markets.
But Bitcoin is the Crypto Market Leader.
Bitcoin is my go-to indicator in the Crypto Market.
Because if Bitcoin is doing well, then the Crypto Market is most likely doing well.

If you think Bitcoin is expensive right now...
What will you do when the Halving 2024 is over and the cost of producing Bitcoin doubles?

From Coingecko


From Bitcoinsensus


Please do not tip, follow, like so that this post is not seen by the "mass".
And you Readers, forget everything you just read :)

Publish0x Links : Bear Market or Not - Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom - Bear Market : Buying Time - My first crypto purchases for this Bear Market 2023 - My Crypto Investments Part 2 - Cosmos Ecosystem - My Crypto Investments Part 3 - My Crypto Investments Part 4 - My Crypto Investments Part 5 


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