Hello,

Long time no see and I'm sorry for that. I hope you are doing well despite the current and future economic context.

The Bitcoin bear market is already well advanced with a first bottom found at $17,585.
We can therefore already assume that there are 3 major possibilities :
1 - The bottom has been found and Bitcoin price will not fall below $17,585.
2 - A double Bottom
3 - The Bottom has not been found and we will go below $17585.

Personally, and I could be wrong, I favor possibility number 3 for several reasons.
Already, there is still time before the next Halving in 2024 and therefore before the next Bull Run which should follow this Halving.

Moreover, if we look at the Bitcoin chart :

We can see that the retracement was 74.32%.
Now let's look at the previous retracements:

We see that previous retracements have been :
For 2011 : -93.75%
For 2013 à 2015 : -86.96%
For 2017 à 2018 : -84.22%
For 2021 à 2023 : ??

The first thing we notice directly is that the retracements are getting weaker and weaker as the BullRuns are also getting weaker.
So there is a slight loss in volatility as adoption and trust is built.
It is therefore reasonable to think that the retracement to come (if it is not finished at 74.32%) should be lower than 84.22%.

So, if we look at the current Bitcoin chart :

It can therefore be assumed that the price of Bitcoin should not fall below $10888.23.
Indeed, it would be nice if the price of Bitcoin did not drop below to stay in this long-term positive momentum.
(If the price of Bitcoin were to drop below, it would only be worrying. This is a case that I will not discuss in this post because it would be necessary to know the global economic and social context at the time when this scenario occurs).

After this parenthesis, we can also see that a retracement of 79.90% (almost 80%) would bring us back to a price of $13,870.

Bitcoin is still considered a risky asset but the objective of this "digital gold" is to become a store of value.
There must therefore be a transition that permanently changes Bitcoin's status from a risky asset to a store of value.
Whether this transition is soft, abrupt or in between and how long it will take, frankly I do not know.

As I said in a previous post : "We can also consider that the scarcity is for the moment more speculative than effective. Indeed the rewards of mining are still high."
As a reminder, the reward for miners is 6.25 BTC. At the Halving in 2024, the reward will be 3,125 BTC for a total of 19,687,500 BTC.
You can check my post : Bitcoin Miner Rewards Evolution for more details.

I do not know what the exact bottom of Bitcoin will be.
But preparing purchase levels between around $10,900 and $20,000 for this bear market while keeping some cash available in case we go lower to remain flexible in our investment strategy seems reasonable.

In my last post : Bear Market or Not, I wrote : "It is also likely that the bull run in the financial markets will end soon (perhaps at the end of the year or next year). There were new market tops, for example the CAC 40 Index, the S&P500 Index, the Nasdaq 100 Index."
Movements in the crypto markets are fast, even very fast compared to "traditional" finance.

CAC 40 Index :

S&P500 Index :

Nasdaq 100 Index :

I think the CAC 40, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices will settle in a range for a few weeks or months.
In this case, Bitcoin and by extension cryptos could take advantage of this to make a significant rebound before there are again violent declines in risky assets.
And this rebound could prevent the price of Bitcoin from going too low : below $10,888.23.
It is very likely that there will be a lot of support between $14,000 and $20,000 and even more between $10,000 and $14,000.
For me the important thing is not to find the perfect bottom but to be able to invest in the low zone for the next Bull Run.

It is difficult to have certainties between the crises we have gone through and those to come, inflation, shortages, the various conflicts.
We must try to choose the most probable scenario.
There are so many possible scenarios that it wouldn't be surprising to get it wrong, and I'm no expert on this.
I try to remain realistic with a small dose of optimism and therefore I hope that Bitcoin will hold $11,000 or even a little more...

This is not investment advice. And the possibility that I'm wrong is also to be taken into account.
The crypto market is young, volatility is high, do your own research and measure the risks before making a decision.

Thanks for reading my post and happy earnings :)

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