Before any purchase, in any walk of life, I’m the type of person who likes to do my due diligence. The phrase “Do your own research” or DYOR is definitely thrown around the Cryptocurrency space (and investing in general) a lot. I encourage everyone to do this whenever I speak to them. Poker Players are widely praised for their ability to use this mantra. Calculating expected value (in the poker players example they do this very quickly too) is a key skill that I believe needs to be encouraged.
So, for any Blockchain game that has a set, expected percentage drop rate from a crate sale, or a pre-sale or anything similar. I’m interested in using pure maths to calculate an expected result from a determined amount of $ value invested. I’ve written previous articles and guides for CryptoSpaceCommander (CSC) and it is no secret that I’m a massive fan of this genre of game (Space MMO) and the game/team/company behind it (Lucid Sight).
CSC launched the Series 1 Crate sale in June 2019. The team have now announced the Series 2 Crate sale for modules that can be used in game. They will be available to purchase on the 11th July 2019 @2300 UTC/@1500 Pacific Time. The sale page has the exact costs of each crate, the exact drop rates of each class of item, and the exact drop rate of each item (from each crate) known. This has allowed me to do a breakdown analysis of what I believe is an expected outcome from purchasing a determined number of crates, or spending a set amount of $ value (in Galactic Federation Credits (GFC) one of the in-game currencies). CSC allows purchases for the crates to be in either USD or ETH, which is great. With the Alpha Build on Steam currently, and Steam packages for starter packages in the future, the future is indeed bright!
For the Series 2 Crate Sale there are 4 different crates available:
- Series 2 Founders Crate – On Sale for 300 GFC ($3) each
- Series 2 Prestige Crate – On Sale for 800 GFC ($8) each
- Series 2 Premium Crate – On Sale for 2300 GFC ($23) each
- Series 2 Combat Crate – On Sale for 1800 GFC ($18) each
As explained above, with the knowledge of the Crate Sale an expected result can be calculated. There, of course, with be some variance, and from a reselling perspective, some modules/ships in the crates will be more valuable than others. A lot of buyers though in this game are buying crates to keep the modules for long term use or crafting. CSC has a really interesting economy developing!
I developed a Google Sheets Document and inputted calculations to demonstrate and display the expected outcome for each crate for varying amounts of $ investment (Ranging from $50 to $1000). From these numbers generated you should all be able to work out what your expected outcome should be for each type of crate you purchase. This is shown below:
In each crate there are 5 modules or ships (5 in total per crate), and the stated % drop chance is per item in each crate. So for each crate I have multiplied the % drop rate by 5. Using an example of buying 20 of the Series 2 Founders Crate, for a total cost of 6000 GFC ($60). We would receive 100 items and the % drop rates can be easily manipulated to see how many of each Tier we should expect to receive on average, how many ships, and the chance for the rare First Fleet ship in the Crates. The other caveat to consider, that I haven’t used in the calculations is the amount of differing modules/ships available in each of the crates. As expected, the cheapest crate (The 300 GFC Series 2 Founders Crate) has the least and doesn’t have all of the rare modules and ships available. Whilst the more expensive crates (The 2300 GFC Series 2 Premium and the 1800 GFC Series 2 Combat crates) have the most amounts of modules. The Founders Crate also has a Zero % chance of finding a Tier 4 module. (Currently only 1 Tier 4 module exists in the CSC universe).
After crunching the numbers, which module the players will choose will depend on their circumstances and what they are trying to achieve. Is the player trying to accumulate ships, or the rare modules? Or are they specifically trying to find the extremely rare First Fleet Ship in this sale (the FF Dominator ship). Hopefully the breakdown above should be helpful for all players and I encourage you all to DYOR.
My opinion, is that I will be purchasing mainly Prestige Crates (the 800 GFC cost crates). I’ll be a miner and a trader in CSC, and have already spent a significant amount on the mining modules from the Series 1 sale. I’m happy to continue to continue to accrue any ships I can, to either hold, or sell in the secondary market on OpenSea (or long-term in the planned in game marketplace), or to craft from the Blueprints any ships in the future.
I hope you have enjoyed this article and hopefully it is benefited you. Please consider signing up to CSC through my link in this article, as I receive a 5% referral — https://www.csc-game.com/?cmdRef=5d2e3ae462d3aa
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